The midterm election results are scattered with monumental firsts - the tide is changing in American politics

With record turnout and voters energised, Democrats have many reasons to feel hopeful

I’m always sceptical when people start talking about “waves”. The child separation policy was going to outrage democrats into a “blue wave” in the midterms; Donald Trump’s obsessive migrant caravan tweeting was going to cause a “red wave”, as Republicans became desperate to keep them away from the border. The injustice of the Kavanaugh confirmation, we were told, would lead to a “pink wave” of women candidates and voters. Because of course, men doing politics isn’t a wave of any sort – it’s just politics as usual.

What we saw yesterday is in fact more akin to a “rainbow wave”. Democrats and Republicans, women and men alike voted in record numbers. Unsurprisingly, it turns out that traditional voting blocs are not a monolith, and the more people that vote the more representative of the population congress becomes.

According to The New York Times, approximately 114 million votes were cast in House races yesterday, compared to 83 million in 2014. As a result, the lower chamber is going to be looking dramatically different come January.

Deb Haaland of New Mexico and Sharice Davids (who openly identifies as a lesbian) of Kansas – one of the states with the most dangerous voter suppression attempts – will become the first Native American women elected to congress (I am wilfully choosing to ignore Elizabeth Warren’s bizarre DNA test debacle).

Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota will become the first Muslim women in congress – the latter will be particularly powerful as a hijab-wearing woman who was born in Somalia, and came to the US as a refugee. She also replaces John Conyers, the Democratic representative who stepped down after allegations of sexual misconduct. In a country where the president shares Islamophobic rhetoric, refers to refugees as potential terrorists, says that migrants “infest” the country, mocks female victims of sexual assault and stands by the alleged perpetrators, Omar’s victory feels particularly poignant.

In Texas almost 40 per cent of the population identifies as Hispanic or Latino, yet the state had never before elected a Hispanic woman to congress. This year, Veronica Escobar and Sylvia Garcia will change that. Massachusetts has voted in its first black House representative Ayanna Pressley, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, at 29, will become the youngest woman to be elected to congress. Tennessee and Arizona have elected their first female senators and South Dakota its first female governor, while Colorado’s Jared Pollis is the first openly gay man to become governor.

All these firsts show that the tide is changing in American politics. Voters have rejected Trump’s divisive rhetoric and prioritised diverse representation and this new make up in the House will be crucial when it comes to passing progressive legislation.

The midterm election has been fraught with claims of voter suppression across the country, yet turnout has been at an all-time high. This shows exactly why voter suppression is dangerous – limiting the number of people able to vote maintains the status quo. Low income voters and African American voters in particular are the most vulnerable, while also being those most likely to support Democratic candidates

Trump seems to have chosen to ignore the fact that his presidency has led to unprecedented numbers of voters turning out to ensure Democrats took the House. He has chosen to call election results a “big victory” and a “tremendous success”. In fact, Republicans gained two senators, and lost 26 House seats. But more importantly, it’s become apparent that his pandering to his base by pushing a conservative social agenda focused on vilifying immigrants, devaluing women and rolling back LGBT+ rights does not appeal to the majority of the electorate.

There are some sad losses for Democrats. Beto O’Rouke failed to unseat Senator Ted Cruz in Texas, and Heidi Heitkamp – somewhat predictably – lost her seat in North Dakota. Georgia’s dramatic governor race between Democrat Stacey Abrams and gun-wielding “round up illegals and send them home myself” Republican Brian Kemp has seen the GOP candidate win.

But Democrats were never expected to win the Senate – it was always about the House. This victory means that Trump will find it extremely difficult to pass legislation, and perhaps more importantly, the House can ensure investigations into everything from his dealings with Russia to his tax affairs. Impeachment seems unlikely (and perhaps unwise), but with the Democrats controlling the House, it is now a real possibility, and one the president should be concerned about.

Ballot measures have also shown a progressive shift in voters. Florida restored voting rights for the 1.5 million convicted felons – a measure which could have huge implications for the next presidential election, as could Michigan’s vote to tackle gerrymandering. Massachusetts upheld transgender rights, which could be crucial for the state if Trump goes through with his threats of doing the opposite. Oregon rejected an anti-abortion measure, while Michigan legalised recreational cannabis.

It seems that all the waves we were promised came to be, but Republicans have always been the most likely to vote anyway, so an uptake has always been much less likely to benefit them. The important takeaway is the clear evidence that higher voter turnout clearly leads to a more diverse and progressive result. Democrats should harness this knowledge going in to the 2020 campaigns, which by all accounts begin today.

Democrats will have realised that focusing on capturing specific demographics (or “waves”) of voters is reductive and useless. What they need to do is tackle voter suppression and gerrymandering hard, and mobilise voters who have lost interest in the democratic process.

Trump won the 2016 presidential election with a turnout at a 20-year low. Just over half the population voted. If 2020 can have anything like the turnout surge we’ve seen in the midterms, the Democrats should be home dry. If the midterms have taught us anything it’s that Americans are a lot more progressive than we thought – all the left needs to do is give them a voice.