Macron’s gamble could disrupt more than just the Paris Olympics

By calling a snap general election, the French president risks weakening his standing, landing his country with an administration led by the far right – and heralding a breach in international solidarity, says Mary Dejevsky

Summit’s up: Emmanuel Macron’s breathtaking electoral gamble could have consequences for the G7 countries and the wider world (Reuters)

When the G7 leaders lined up with their EU counterparts for a group photo in Puglia, it was hard not to start counting them down, if not out. There was the UK’s Rishi Sunak, all present and correct this time (unlike at Omaha Beach), but likely to be out of office in three weeks’ time. Joe Biden may be gone in a matter of months, even if he withstands the rigours of the US election campaign. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the EU Commission, has a reasonable, but not unimpeachable chance of keeping her job for another term following last week’s EU parliamentary elections.

And then there’s France’s Emmanuel Macron, ostensibly safe in the Elysee Palace for another three years – except that, all of a sudden, as of last Sunday, and by an act entirely of his own volition, maybe not. For while an opposition victory in legislative elections would not dislodge him from the presidency constitutionally – cohabitation between presidents and legislatures of different persuasions having honourable precedents in France, as in the United States – it is not impossible that this at-once haughty and petulant president might stamp his foot and call it a day.

Then again, he may not have to. It is early days since Macron’s breathtaking electoral gamble, but it could be paying off. The initial shock across France at the magnitude of the risk their president seemed to be taking – almost inviting the prospect of a government headed by the right-wing leader, Marine Le Pen – has been replaced by equal astonishment and, in some quarters, delight at the disarray now roiling the opposition. As one social media comment put it, why waste money on Netflix when French politics is this entertaining?

The most farcical episode turned on an attempt by Eric Ciotti, leader of the centre-right Republicans, to form a united electoral front with Le Pen’s National Rally. The idea was to pre-empt any scheming by Macron to splinter the right. In the event, though, he did not need to. Ciotti, it turned out, had no mandate for his approach and was forced to resign – but not before he had barricaded himself in his headquarters in a brief show of resistance. For the leader of a party claiming the Gaullist mantel, this was an extraordinary step to take. It would have left the late President Chirac, for one – an avowed foe of the far right – turning in his grave. No wonder Ciotti was ousted.

That Macron may have won round one without a fight, however, does not mean he is home and dry. And any victory he eventually claims could be relative. The optimum scenario would be a resounding defeat for a divided right, and a more cooperative parliament giving Macron more room for legislative manoeuvre in his remaining time in power.

There could be a second best, too. If National Rally were to do well, and Le Pen or, more likely the party’s young president, Jordan Bardella, were to become prime minister, the Macron wager here could be that the far right would prove as bad at governing as it is good at campaigning. That, in turn, could inoculate France not only from another far-right government in the near future, but from a Le Pen presidency after Macron.

Either way, in the short term or longer term, Macron could claim vindication. But things could also go badly wrong.

National Rally might prove better at governing than its detractors expect. And whereas in the past, some sort of psychological barrier seems to have stopped French voters from electing a far-right majority parliament or a president from the far right, might that barrier now be breached?

And would that be because this is the direction in which French politics is evolving or – and this is different – because voters feel insulted by Macron’s response to their vote in the EU elections and decide to teach him a lesson in three weeks’ time?

There is another respect in which Macron’s calculations seem more than a gamble, but truly reckless, and this is because the effects extend beyond France, to Europe as a whole and to the wider world. It is all very well for Macron to dice with parliamentary elections in the weeks before his country shows itself off internationally as host of the 2024 Olympic Games. He might argue that preparations are so well in hand that the face that Paris presents to the world would not be unduly damaged by a far-right electoral victory (and a politically weakened president) – though many might beg to differ.

But there can be no doubt that these snap elections will distract France from playing her part at this crucial juncture in international life. There is the G7 this weekend, to be followed by the summit on Ukraine in Switzerland. There is the distribution of top jobs in the EU to be considered, and the future direction of the EU in light of the elections.

The elections could be especially bad news for Ukraine. Scarcely has Macron emerged as one of the doughtiest big-country leaders in support of Ukraine than French politics is turning back inwards, and the government that new elections could produce risks being a lot less keen on support for Ukraine than its predecessor or the president.

By holding these legislative elections in such short order, Macron risks not just a government led by the far right in France – which he may believe he can cope with – but a significant breach in international solidarity, across a great many fields. There is no big country that projects power beyond its borders as do France and the UK that has also elected a far-right government.

It could be argued that any change in the complexion of the government will have less effect on foreign policy than on other areas, given that French foreign policy is largely the preserve of the president, as it is in the United States. Macron may be less concerned about potential conflicts with a new government, given his penchant for using disruption as a political tool, and the fact that his decision to hold new elections came from the same playbook. Nevertheless, concern in the United States is palpable – and might be more so in the UK, were we not in the throes of our own election campaign.

In three weeks’ time, there may be different ways in which Macron can legitimately claim that his gamble was vindicated. Whatever happens, however, those vindications are unlikely to include any enhancement of France’s international role or reputation – still less the end of the far right’s appeal in France.