Ten things we have learnt from the local election results
Labour failed to overturn Tory strongholds in London, the Lib Dems made gains and Ukip was crushed. But what does it all mean?
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Your support makes all the difference.The end of Ukip
In 2014, Ukip won 17 per cent of the votes in local elections. Now like the Poujade movement in France in the 1950s Ukip is dead. The votes have gone back to their natural right-wing home, the Conservative Party.
No change
The two main parties, Conservative and Labour, stay roughly the same. As with the continuing 50-50 split on Europe, two years after the Brexit referendum, British politics is in stasis with no sense of dramatic movement in any direction, left or right, pro or anti-Brexit.
Anti-Brexit gains
With Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn insisting that the Brexit vote cannot be challenged and the UK must leave the single market and the existing EU customs union, voters did increase their votes for the clearly anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats and the Green Party, which was the surprise – if modest – winner last night.
Labour's Brexit denial
Labour refused to campaign in London – the heartland of the pro-European vote in the 2016 referendum – on the issue of Brexit. There are one million EU citizens in London who had the right to vote in local elections – the last time they can do so before the UK leaves Europe. Labour failed to capture all their votes with a strong anti-Brexit message. Sitting on the Brexit fence did not help Labour in key seats in the midlands and the north where there are more Leave voters.
Tory mutineers
For Tory MPs who are considering voting to keep the UK in the customs union – the main vote on the EU that has to happen in the house of commons in the next months – can no longer be pressured by party managers to vote for a hard Brexit with the argument it would threaten a general election with the strong possibility that Jeremy Corbyn would become prime minister.
Corbyn's march is over
The forward march of Labour seen in Jeremy Corbyn’s gains in May’s snap general election of 2017 has now come to a halt.
Capital failure
Jeremy Corbyn made massive efforts to win in London. He turned up as no previous Labour leader has done in history to personally lead local campaigning in London. Yet Labour failed to win any of the four Boroughs – Westminster, Wandsworth, Kensington and Barnett – that it threw all its energy into conquering. Corbyn never mentioned Europe in any of his campaigning speeches and thus failed to enthuse the large majority of Remain voters in London. It is clear that Jewish voters in Barnet are not ready to vote for a Labour Party accused of failing to deal with any expression of anti-Jewish sentiment by some Labour activists.
Lib Dem resurgence
While Labour failed to win the four London councils it was targeting, the pro-EU Lib Dems did win the big middle class council of Richmond. Since Brexit the BBC has treated Ukip’s Nigel Farage as one of the most important national political leaders in the UK. The BBC favouritism of Farage and Ukip can no longer be justified as he and the party no longer have any electoral base.
London calling
The Labour leadership is overwhelmingly drawn from London MPs – the leader, shadow chancellor, shadow foreign secretary, shadow home secretary, shadow Brexit spokesman – some of whom boasted that Labour would take over major London councils. This failure to translate the parliamentary wins in London into council wins should cause Labour to think whether its inability to articulate a pro-European message in UK capital is intelligent vote-winning politics.
No more elections
In 2017 and 2018 there were elections that dominated UK politics. Now there is no election is sight until 2022 when the next general election takes place. Both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have been shaken by yesterday’s vote but not to the extent that results in their leadership being challenged or forcing a major rethink in their approach to Brexit. Now the newly elected councillors and MPs not having to worry about an election for four years will have to turn their minds to Brexit. May has delayed and put on hold any decision about the UK in Europe. That period of avoiding any leadership or facing up to deciding how to handle key decision is over. The question remains open for MPs to decide whether to back the full amputation desired by the Tory Brexiteers or instead start to step up the pressure for a more moderate approach that preserves peace in Ireland and maintains economic opening to Europe.
Denis MacShane was a Labour MP for 18 years and the UK’s Minister for Europe when Tony Blair was Prime Minister. His latest book is 'Brexit, No Exit. Why (in the End) Britain Won’t Leave Europe'
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