A cry to ‘get on with Brexit’ or a Remain backlash? In fact, neither side triumphed in the local elections

With the Brexit Party polling so well, and the Remain vote split between at least three parties, I expect the European elections will be far more conclusive

Whatever happens in life or in politics tends to confirm people in whatever view they held to start with. For those who want to leave the EU, the local elections were a punishment for the government and the main opposition party for their failure to deliver Brexit.

For those who want to stay in the EU, on the other hand, the local elections were a demand for a new referendum, with the two parties that want to stop Brexit, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, gaining 900 seats.

If you study them closely, these two interpretations do not contradict each other. Leavers could be disappointed with Theresa May for failing to get us out of the EU, while Remainers could be disappointed by Jeremy Corbyn facing both ways on Brexit, and those who felt strongly enough would have turned to pro-referendum parties.

Meanwhile many people will have voted for whoever they thought would make sure their bins were emptied or prevent a new building in their back yard.

The local elections were never going to be a good test of Brexit sentiment in any case. There was no pro-Brexit protest party apart from Ukip, a discredited and spent force that stood candidates in only one in six seats.

And neither the Lib Dems nor the Greens are solely pro-EU parties. John Burn-Murdoch, the Financial Times’s brilliant data analyst, found the Lib Dems did best in strongly Remain areas, but they did well in Leave areas too. As Sir John Curtice, the BBC’s number-cruncher, said on the night, part of the Lib Dem’s success was simply a reversion to their traditional role, especially in local government, as the credible alternative to the two main parties.

The European elections in 19 days’ time are going to be a more clear-cut test of Brexit opinion. The same two views will be in contention – “Get on with it” vs “Call the whole thing off” – but this time the louder voices will definitely be on the pro-Brexit side.

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is going to carry all before it. I predict a minor hiccup while it disposes of Claire Fox, its formerly IRA-supporting candidate in the North West England region. Farage will have no answer to how Brexit can realistically be delivered, given that supporters of a no-deal exit are in a minority in the country and in parliament.

But those are details. The Brexit argument is simple: we voted for it; we want it now.

On the other side, the Remain vote is going to be split three ways in England, between Lib Dems, Greens and Change UK, and four ways in Scotland and Wales. That is likely to muffle the message, but it will still be clearer than anything coming from the two main parties.

The Conservatives are likely to do very badly indeed. I expect there are going to be some Tory MEP candidates who won’t even vote for themselves. And until the local elections I would have said Labour would do reasonably well, but now I am not so sure.

According to YouGov, of people intending to vote Labour in the European elections, 45 per cent think the party wants Britain to stay in the EU, while 14 per cent think it wants to leave – and 42 per cent say “neither” or “don’t know”.

Actually, come to think of it, that finding is extraordinary. If we break it down, the 42 per cent consists of 15 per cent who do not know what Labour’s policy on Brexit is, and 27 per cent – of people who intend to vote Labour – who think the party neither wants to stay in the EU nor to leave it.

Perhaps they don’t care about Brexit much – stay, go, what difference does it make? – and they think Jeremy Corbyn’s other policies are more important. Although I personally can’t think of any his policies that require people to vote to send MEPs to Brussels.

So Labour might do badly too, but the overwhelming message from the European elections is likely to be delivered by a record turnout of people who are furious about what they see as the betrayal of Brexit.

Those who want the opposite message to be heard should take comfort from that. The howls of protest from Leavers are a sign that the Brexit project is failing. The Leave movement has split over how Brexit is to be delivered, which means that the 52 per cent majority no longer exists.

The return in hollow triumph of Nigel Farage is a price that has to be paid for staying in the EU.