Tories are worried the ‘broken Britain’ tag is gaining with the public

Whoever is prime minister will get booted out in 2024 unless there are major improvements

Away from the promises, platitudes and cakeism of the Conservative Party’s leadership election, senior Tories privately fret about a nightmarish autumn and winter in which the problems go well beyond the cost of living crisis, which is dire enough.

They worry that a damaging narrative will solidify in the public’s mind: a “broken Britain” that isn’t working any more on numerous fronts. “Labour is going to hang this label round our neck,” one former minister told me.

When you think of the problems, the list just gets longer and longer: record NHS waiting lists (alone capable of deciding the next general election); problems in A&E and ambulance services; delays in appointments for GPs, dentists, getting a passport or driving test and in the criminal justice system (particularly in rape cases); chaos at airports likely to stretch to the autumn half-term; queues at the Channel Tunnel; water industry failures contributing to the drought; disruption from strikes, particularly on the railways. Things could get even worse: there is the possibility of power cuts this winter.

One grassroots Tory gave Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak a much-needed dose of reality at their leadership hustings in Cheltenham, saying: “The list is endless. It’s almost like nothing is working. Whoever is prime minister I think will get booted out in 2024 unless there are major improvements. It will just be a fact of life. People will say we need to change ... Keir Starmer and co will be able to demonstrate that a Tory government is not working because so many things will still be below standard.”

Wise Tories admit to some failings. Michael Gove, a cabinet minister until recently, raised eyebrows by telling a Policy Exchange event: “There are some core functions – giving you your passport, giving you your driving licence – which are simply, at the moment, not functioning.” When Jacob Rees-Mogg, supposedly the minister for government efficiency, was asked which public service works well in Britain, he quipped: “Test matches are going reasonably well.”

Thankfully, Truss takes such matters more seriously. One of her soundbites acknowledges the challenge: her priority would be “delivery, delivery, delivery”. But she is vague about the public sector “reforms” needed, and her default position is to blame problems on an obstructive civil service “blob”. It won’t wash; after 12 years in power, the Tories are running out of excuses. “We have not been good at delivery,” the former minister admitted. “There’s too much energy spent on strategy and making announcements and nowhere enough follow through.”

A big part of the problem is the Tories’ under-investment in public services. Truss now implicitly concedes austerity was a political rather than economic choice by rejecting a return to Osbornomics and balancing the nation’s books. High inflation, which rose to more than 10 per cent in today’s official figures, will make the public sector squeeze much worse: departmental budgets are due to rise by an average of only 3.3 per cent.

This offers Labour a big opening. I’m told the opposition will portray Truss as “continuity Boris Johnson” in the hope of preventing her securing the bounce from being “new” that Johnson got in 2019. Some shadow cabinet members are itching to accuse the Tories of “12 wasted years”. They have been held back by Keir Starmer on the grounds that it didn’t work because voters believed Johnson was different – “not a typical Tory”, as many told focus groups. Unless Truss distances herself from Johnson once the leadership contest is over, the Tories may be vulnerable to this line of attack.

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Although Labour does condemn “backlog Britain,” it is wary of claiming the country is “broken”. Starmer, who wraps himself in the union flag almost as much as Truss does to compensate for what he sees as Jeremy Corbyn’s lack of patriotism, is sensitive to the charge of “running the country down”. He knows Truss would hit back at a “broken Britain” offensive by accusing Labour of being “unpatriotic” and “declinist” (a word she throws at Sunak when arguing a recession is not inevitable). Indeed, Truss would relish a battle in which she was cast as the booster and Keir Starmer the doomster.

Labour acknowledges that some voters still give the government the benefit of the doubt, with public services facing Covid backlogs and the energy price spike caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ministers can point to energy problems across Europe.

However, Starmer could insulate himself against Truss’ inevitable counterattack by coupling criticism of “broken Britain” with a positive vision of how a Labour government would fix it. We are still waiting for it.

No amount of boosterism from Truss will cure the country’s ills. The new prime minister will throw more money at helping people pay their energy bills than she currently admits, but there won’t be enough to go round to rescue public services.

In 1979, the Tories came to power with the help of the powerful slogan that “Labour isn’t working”. In 2010, the Tories ousted Labour with a promise to fix Britain’s “broken political system” and “broken society”. Given the state we’re in, the Tories will deserve a taste of their own medicine in 2024.