Can the Liberal Democrats overtake Labour? It’s no longer a silly question

Inside Westminster: Emboldened by new MPs, donors and supporters, the Liberal Democrats look set to reinvigorate the centre ground

Enoch Powell was right about one thing: “All political lives end in failure.” Yet there are always exceptions. Sir Vince Cable will bow out on a high in two weeks, following the Liberal Democrats’ remarkable recovery at the May local and European parliament elections.

There is more to come. On Friday, Cable trumpeted a pact under which the Greens and Plaid Cymru, who will both stand aside for the Lib Dems at the 1 August by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire. That should ensure an early present for his successor, who will be named on 22 July, a day earlier than planned to avoid clashing with the Tory leadership result.

The new Lib Dem leader will have other welcome gifts. I’m told that Sarah Wollaston, the Tory turned Change UK turned independent MP, will soon follow in the footsteps of former Labour MP Chuka Umunna by joining the Lib Dems. Heidi Allen, briefly leader of Change UK and previously a Tory MP, is also rumoured to join the party. The new leader will also reap the benefit of some new donors, adding to the sense of momentum. Although, as the new government will dominate the headlines, the Lib Dems would be wise to save some ammunition for their annual conference in September.

Change UK did not break the mould in the way that Umunna, Wollaston and Allen hoped when they left their respective parties in February. But the much-derided new party was the catalyst for a centre ground revival. It forced the Lib Dems to raise their game. There was probably only going to be room for one party in the centre. It is now unquestionably the Lib Dems. They might be an established party, but have the energy and sense of excitement of a new one; further defections will add to it. More than 65 per cent of their 108,000 members have joined since 2015.

A YouGov poll this week put the Lib Dems on 20 per cent, ahead of Labour (18 per cent) and just behind the Brexit Party and the Conservatives. Could the Lib Dems overtake Labour permanently? It’s no longer a silly question. Some Labour MPs, alarmed by the YouGov survey, are already asking it. After all, Jeremy Corbyn’s paralysis on Brexit, the endless controversy over antisemitism and dire poll ratings make a toxic brew.

Even if Corbyn finally gets off his fence and agrees to back Remain in a referendum, it might look so grudging that it does not convince voters who defected to the Lib Dems and Greens. Cable made clear that Labour could not be part of a Remain alliance, which might become important if we have a general election this autumn – a prospect that would be enhanced by Boris Johnson’s expected victory.

Jo Swinson, frontrunner in the Lib Dem contest, is keener on local pacts than her rival Sir Ed Davey. Their contest has not exactly set the party alight, let alone the outside world. The Lib Dem contest has been eclipsed by the Tory one, but it does matter: the party could easily be the kingmaker after an election. However, to avoid yet another false dawn, the new Lib Dem leader will need to map out a more convincing agenda beyond Brexit. Although Swinson and Davey insist they can become prime minister, holding the balance of power is a more realistic goal. “We mustn’t get drunk on success,” one Lib Dem figure admitted.

Labour should not assume, as some in its leadership do, that Remain voters who deserted the party in May will return at a general election to keep the Tories out. Boris might have more appeal than Labour thinks, and the party could be badly squeezed by a Brexit alliance between Johnson and Nigel Farage on one side and a Remain alliance on the other.

Corbyn’s anti-austerity message would be aimed at the Lib Dems as well as the Tories, given the Lib Dems’ role in the 2010-15 coalition. Yet that period might just have an upside for the Lib Dems, helping them to counter the “wasted vote” argument that has killed them at many elections. An average of recent polls suggests Labour would be the largest party, but well short of an overall majority. So the Lib Dems could argue that a solid block of their MPs would keep Labour in check.

The world has moved on quickly since the 2017 election, when the Tories and Labour secured 82 per cent of the votes between them, with Labour hoovering up the Remain vote. In the YouGov survey, their combined share was 42 per cent. Corbyn will find it hard to recreate the magic of his brilliant 2017 campaign – not least his support among young voters. Then, they believed he was a Remainer. But today, they can’t be sure.