The Lib Dems are doing themselves no favours by sidestepping Brexit

There is little sign that the Liberal Democrats have profited from their silence on Brexit, writes polling guru John Curtice. As the party’s conference looms, it may be time to rethink its position

The Liberal Democrats’ low poll rating threatens to reduce the number of seats where the party might profit from any anti-Conservative mood (PA)

The Liberal Democrats kick off the autumn party conference season in Bournemouth this weekend with apparent reason for optimism. So far in this parliament the party has claimed a Tory scalp in four parliamentary by-elections, its best record since the 1992-7 parliament. In May the party recorded what was probably its best performance in English local elections since it entered into coalition with the Conservatives after the 2010 general election – a step that of course proved electorally disastrous and from which the party has been trying to recover ever since.

Yet a look at the party’s standing in the opinion polls in this parliament raises questions about the progress it has achieved on the road to recovery. It is currently running on average at 11 per cent – still slightly below the 12 per cent it recorded in 2019. At no point since 2019 has its rating been higher than its tally four years ago. While Labour has soared in the polls, the Liberal Democrats have seemingly failed to profit from the Conservatives’ travails.