Political cowardice was rewarded at this election – but the Lib Dems can rebuild by reaffirming our progressive values

My party made mistakes during the campaign but we must not forget that local governance is our strength and use that as a new foundation to build from, writes Vince Cable

The ash is just beginning to settle from the political eruption of the Conservative victory in Thursday’s election.

Initial assessments suggest severe burns for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats though the first-past-the-post voting system worsened the injury: the Liberal Democrats had a sizeable increase in vote share – from 7.3 per cent to 11.5 per cent – but lost our leader as well as the longstanding, highly respected, MP Tom Brake and incurred a net loss of one.

I greatly regret my party’s losses. But one of my biggest regrets about this election is the way that Labour and Conservative rebels, who in the last parliament showed courage and independence of mind, have been annihilated to a man and woman whether they stood as Liberal Democrat or independent. Political cowardice, opportunism and conformity have been rewarded while bravery was dismissed. This has long-term implications for our, already, discredited politics.

There were several reasons why the Liberal Democrats seriously underperformed against expectations. And I don’t blame Jo Swinson who is being made the scapegoat. Leaders, like Premier League managers, are praised for success and blamed for defeat even when they are not responsible.

The first negative factor was the way the Brexit debate played out. By effectively folding his campaign into the Tories’, Nigel Farage ensured that Leavers had an (almost) united front while the Remain vote was badly split. At a deeper level, the Boris Johnson mantra – “get Brexit done” – was highly effective as a soundbite, however misleading. And the Tory campaign tapped into an emotionally charged English nationalism. Indeed, the big theme of the night was the triumph of nationalism – English and Scottish.

A second big factor was the framing of the debate as a head-to-head presidential election between Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn. Johnson’s numerous peccadillos and struggles with the truth proved to be minor handicaps set alongside the fear and dislike Corbyn inspired among a large section of the electorate. There was large-scale “tactical” voting for the Conservatives by those who were otherwise minded to vote Lib Dem, as well as switching by the traditional Labour working-class voters for different reasons. This may not prove to be a sustainable coalition of supporters for the Conservatives but it was effective this time.

In all honesty I should also acknowledge that the Liberal Democrats made mistakes. The most serious was the policy of revoke which, however justifiable in an emergency where a no-deal exit from the EU was the only other option, struck many voters as undemocratic and threw away the credibility which had been built up campaigning for a confirmatory referendum.

So, where now? No one expected a landslide on this scale; and the last time it happened (1987) it took a decade and three Labour leaders to unwind it. A lot depends on what now happens in the Labour Party – especially as Liberal Democrat support is at least partly governed by whether voters are willing to “risk” a Labour government. The immediate reaction from a Momentum-dominated party will be to change the face on the tin but keep the socialist contents. What its activist base appears not to grasp is that while individual policies appear popular – who wouldn’t want lots of free things? The total package lacks the credibility which Blair and Brown gave to Labour 20 years ago. Radical socialism is the taste of a few, not the many.

Yet there will soon be a craving for alternatives to Boris Johnson’s government. He starts without a popular majority of votes (as opposed to seats). The economy is stagnant and is unlikely to revive while there is continued serious uncertainty over the terms of our relationship with the EU. Expectations have been raised – for public spending and tax cuts – which will inevitably be disappointed. Within weeks, if not months, there will be bitter wrangling over the future of the United Kingdom as well as over the next stage of Brexit and over promised trade deals with the US and others. And while Brexiteers have been able to release their anger, the many angry Remainers – especially among the young – will return to the charge: perhaps demanding a change to the grossly distorting voting system; perhaps demanding a reopening of Brexit issues deemed by the Conservative government to be “done”.

The Lib Dems will have a period of difficult adjustment as some of the army of fervent Remainers melt away and the once fearsome, central campaigning operation is overhauled. But there are some underlying strengths which will endure. The party remains the only real option for millions of people with liberal and social democratic values. It has been acknowledged to have strong economic and business credibility which Labour and the Conservatives have subordinated to populist policies. It retains a strong local government base, greatly strengthened in the May elections this year and there will soon be opportunities to rebuild it further. And largely unnoticed in the election headlines is the fact that the Liberal Democrats have re-established a large number of strong second places, lost in 2015 and 2017, which are a precondition for future gains.

For some of us, these are profoundly depressing times. I have spent half a century contesting elections in a “progressive” cause and, alongside these elections, campaigning for the UK to be part of Europe. Both causes have been badly damaged. But only for now, until we get off the floor and give the electorate a plausible alternative to this government’s precarious mandate.

Sir Vince Cable is a former leader of the Liberal Democrats and a former secretary of state for business