Global warming: economists don't know best

Mr Jeremy Berkoff
Wednesday 29 March 1995 23:02 BST
Comments

Your support helps us to tell the story

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.

At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.

Your support makes all the difference.

From Mr Jeremy Berkoff

Sir: Frances Cairncross may be right that the most rational course is to adapt to climate change when it happens, but the operative word is "may". Nowhere in her article does she address the risks involved.

What happens if global warming greatly accelerates? To quote William Cline to the effect that the benefits of taking action on global warming do not overtake the costs until about 2150 implies that he actually knows. He doesn't, because no one knows - for certain.

Moreover, to state that the world has only so much wealth to devote to solving environmental problems is nonsense. It may decide to devote only so much, but that is quite another matter. The choice is not merely, or even significantly, between resolving water pollution problems and anticipating global warming, but in the proportion of world wealth that is devoted to any particular purpose in competition with all others. And, given the dangers involved, I would have thought that reducing the risks associated with global warming should by any standards be a priority.

The insurance industry makes its living by distributing known risks among many. Unfortunately, there is only one earth and the risks of global warming are unknown. Moreover, those who cause the problem do not share equally in the risks, and those that take action benefit those who don't. Thus, the option of leaving it to the market (however defined) is unavailable. Since the risk premium will be to some extent arbitrary, and since some consideration should presumably be given to equity, the only possible mechanism is "the laborious negotiation of complex international treaties" which Ms Cairncross so derides.

Yours faithfully,

JEREMY BERKOFF

Cambridge

28 March

Join our commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Comments

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in