Leading Article: No 10 must help Mr Molyneaux

TO James Molyneaux falls a historic role in which his predecessors have failed. The leader of the Ulster Unionists must guide his people into an honourable accommodation with nationalists. But he cannot afford to alienate his Protestant constituency lest he himself is ousted by hardliners. The Government should be careful to bolster a politician who could be the linchpin of any lasting peace settlement.

So far, Mr Molyneaux has acted artfully. He has displayed chameleon-like qualities in echoing his people's anxieties while stopping short of sabotaging the peace process. But his difficulties should not be underestimated, and are likely to worsen. Protestants feel beleaguered and have observed with deep concern what they consider to be the anti-Unionist drift of British policy over the past 20 years. Economic deprivation and the IRA's campaign of violence has only exacerbated a sense of isolation and vulnerability. Ian Paisley's pulpit demagoguery denouncing compromise makes Mr Molyneaux's calmer diplomacy all the harder. Nor will Loyalist paramilitaries tolerate any failure to hold the Protestant line.

Reconciling the forces of reform and reaction has proved impossible in the past for Unionist leaders. Terence O'Neill, who tried to liberalise Unionism in the Sixties, was forced to resign as Prime Minister of Northern Ireland by colleagues who believed he was selling them out. Brian Faulkner and William Craig became political outcasts for similar reasons.

Mr Molyneaux does, however, enjoy advantages over his predecessors and may have more room for manoeuvre. His voters are weary of violence and thirsty for peace. And thanks to his agreement to support John Major's small Commons majority, he has achieved a real say in government policy. His supporters can feel braver in the knowledge that their leader can pull the rug out from under the Prime Minister. Their faith in this arrangement will be strengthened by yesterday's news that a Commons select committee on Northern Ireland is to be created.

The unthreatening manner of the Irish Taoiseach, Albert Reynolds (compare Charles Haughey), combined with Sinn Fein's lukewarm reception for this week's declaration, should also reduce fears of betrayal. The document is vaguely worded, causing general confusion about its real nature. Unlike the 1973 Sunningdale agreement and the 1985 Anglo-Irish accord, this week's declaration has not established institutions that can become the focus of discontent.

Mr Molyneaux has a proven political track record. For all Mr Paisley's bombast, it has been the Ulster Unionist Party that has gained electoral ground during the past decade. The coming year will be a far greater challenge. A politician whose hallmark has long been dogged immobility will have to make compromises that none of his predecessors has survived. Mr Major must do all he can to ensure that Mr Molyneaux does not share their fate.