If my party backs another Brexit referendum, Jeremy Corbyn will become prime minister next year

Labour faces a clear choice: either a hard Brexit with a right-wing Tory government until 2022 or a public vote on the deal and the election of a Labour government

Yesterday Barry Gardiner, Labour’s shadow trade secretary, said that Labour should oppose another referendum and pursue Brexit – despite the risk of a no deal or a bad deal. Today, Labour’s shadow Brexit secretary responded by saying that a second referendum should remain “on the table”’. But despite their apparent differences, Keir Starmer and Barry Gardiner must agree on one thing: we should chart a course that delivers a Labour government and not a lasting Tory Brexit.

To make Jeremy Corbyn prime minister next year, Labour must back a public vote on the EU deal. The alternative is no deal, which would trigger a hard Brexit inflicted by a right-wing Tory prime minister between 2019 and 2022.

Yes, some in the Labour Party still believe that this incompetent, divided Conservative government only needs one more push to force a general election. “Surely”, they argue, after the resignations of the deputy prime minister, the home secretary, defence secretary, Brexit and foreign secretaries, the Tories can’t go on much longer. “It’s only a matter of time” before a Conservative leadership challenge from the right, a defeat in the Commons from the “centrists”, or a failure to agree a deal with Brussels will trigger a general election. Then, within months, Britain will elect a Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn. Right? Wrong.

Another Tory crisis won’t trigger an election because the Fixed-term Parliaments Act requires two-thirds of MPs to vote for a general election for it to occur before 2022. Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas and last time, in 2017, when the Tories called an election they were 20 points ahead in the polls but still ended up having to bankroll the DUP to cling on to power. They won’t make the same mistake again and, now that they’re behind in the polls, there’s no chance of an election. The Tories are braced for stormy seas ahead with no appetite to pass over the captaincy to Jeremy Corbyn.

With that in mind, the cunning plan of the Brexit fundamentalists is to lead a mutiny against Theresa May and to set sail for no-deal island. They calculate that Labour will vote in parliament against Theresa May’s compromised EU deal in October/November because it won’t satisfy Labour’s six tests. Therefore, by voting with Labour against the deal, the mutineers can defeat the government and deliver the no-deal outcome they crave.

Labour’s call for an immediate election will be met with deaf ears. Instead, there will be a Conservative leadership contest to decide who is best suited as Tory prime minister to implement a no-deal Brexit up until the 2022 election. The chaos of a no-deal Brexit – with food and medicine shortages – will require emergency measures to keep lorries and planes moving. Shrinking economic activity and trade will require a squeeze on “expensive” environmental standards and rights at work. So, soon we may all be flying on board Jacob Rees-Mogg’s time machine back to Charles Dickens’ Britain.

But there is another way. The public mood is shifting. Increasingly, Leave voters are saying Brexit is too costly, taking too long and is much more complicated than they were told and want a public vote on the deal – ideally “legitimised” with Labour’s support. They are losing faith in the false hope that Britain can strike better trade deals with the US and China than as part of Team EU. Already, 112 Leave constituencies have switched to Remain and a clear majority wants a public vote on the deal with the option of staying in the EU.

Labour’s 2018 conference will decide whether to support a public vote on the deal. If we do, public support will accelerate, Theresa May’s deal will be defeated in the Commons and Labour will be joined by the SNP and Tory Remainer MPs to grant one. If in the ensuing people’s vote the UK decides to stay in the EU, we would face a constitutional crisis: the government, elected on a mandate of being strong and stable as we left the EU, weak and unstable as we stayed in it, would have no legitimacy. This would require a general election that Labour can surely win if we have both backed the public vote on the deal and the campaign to stay in the EU.

So, Labour faces a clear choice: either a hard Brexit with a right-wing Tory government until 2022 inflicting untold damage on our economy, environment, and workers’ rights – or a public vote on the deal and the election of a Labour government. I have no doubt, when all is said and done, that Jeremy will put an early Labour government before a lasting Tory Brexit and support a public vote on the deal.

Geraint Davies is Labour MP for Swansea