I was born and raised in Kentucky — and I don't think Democrats should be gloating about this election result

As a lifelong Democrat myself, such a razor-thin margin of victory worries me. This isn't the triumph it looks like

Trump came, Trump saw, Trump… received more of a thumping than a basketball at Rupp Arena. That, at least, is the narrative being spun by Democratic pundits and officials this morning, following the defeat of incumbent Republican governor Matt Bevin by the young, telegenic Andy Beshear in my home state of Kentucky.

This is proof, they insist, that Donald Trump is toxic and unpopular, and that 2020 will be a #BlueWave.

Bevin governed as a Trumpian, bombastic and confrontational. He brought the President to the commonwealth in the waning days of the campaign in a last-ditch effort to capitalize on his popularity in the state. It didn’t work, but not for the reasons many are giving.

As a native Kentuckian and a lifelong Democrat, I am thrilled to see the back of Bevin, a carpetbagger from up north who took the tone and tenor of politics in our state to startling new lows. My joy has been tempered, though, by a deep annoyance at national pundits and Democratic officials gloating over Beshear’s victory as though it is some bellwether for next year’s general election. Anyone who thinks last night’s result is surprising, or an upset, or in any way indicative of wider political trends clearly does not understand the politics or history of the commonwealth.

Conventional wisdom states that, though Kentucky is the Bluegrass State, it is hardly blue. Federally, this is true. Kentucky hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since 1996. Save for John Yarmuth out of Jefferson County, its congressional delegation is entirely Republican — including GOP heavyweights Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul. It’s understandable, then, that many would think Kentucky is as crimson as a Louisville cardinal.

The state’s history, though, tells a different story. In 2016, the GOP took control of the state house of representatives; for 96 years prior to that, the Democrats had the majority. Only six governors in the past 100 years have been Republican, and none of them have been elected for a second term. It is hardly a ruby jewel in the Republican crown.

Though Kentucky might like Democrats in Frankfort, they really don’t like them in Washington. Most Kentucky Democrats can be classified as moderate to conservative, the so-called “blue dogs” of the party. They can win statewide races by taking tepid to antagonistic stances on abortion, LGBT rights, immigration, and a host of social issues. It’s these issues that drive Kentucky voters to tick the box for the GOP in congressional and presidential races.

Beshear had no national Democrats come campaign for him, likely because he knows this. Bevin, on the other hand, had no choice but to bring in outside help. He went into this election with a 34 per cent approval rating, ranking as the second least popular governor in the country. He had taken deeply controversial stances, including dismantling Obamacare in a state where it was wildly popular and taking on the teacher’s union over pensions and tenure.

Yet Beshear only won by a razor-thin margin. Considering how unpopular Matt Bevin is with voters, it should not have been this close. Bevin needed Donald Trump to even be competitive, and while it didn’t push him to victory, it almost did. The president still holds a net-positive approval rating in the commonwealth, and while many are this morning touting Bevin’s defeat as a defeat for Donald Trump, it’s more likely that Bevin’s defeat would have been a lot worse had it not been for his support.

Andy Beshear won a race that was his to lose, but only just. Down ballot, the Republicans did exceedingly well in Kentucky. There was no blue wave in the Bluegrass State. I say none of this out of love for Matt Bevin or Donald Trump, but because I’m worried Democrats are reading the tea leaves all wrong. This election wasn’t a referendum on impeachment, nor was it a repudiation of Donald Trump. It was a very Kentucky election playing out as Kentucky elections have played out for 100 years, and nothing more.