Why Kemi Badenoch only has 15 months to save her leadership

By banging on about immigration, the leader of the opposition is showing that her obsession with Reform is more important to her than challenging the government, writes Andrew Grice. And already the cracks are starting to show

When MPs gossip after Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs), they sometimes ask each other whether the session was their party leader’s best performance at the weekly joust. Unfortunately for Kemi Badenoch, many Conservative backbenchers concluded that Wednesday’s was her worst.

Yet the Tories are in denial; the party’s YouTube channel ran with the headlines “Keir Starmer RATTLED by Kemi Badenoch” and “Kemi BASHES Keir”.

There is growing frustration among Tory MPs that, despite the Starmer government’s woes, Badenoch is not landing enough blows on it. They are jittery because many thought they had elected a street fighter last November.

One influential senior Tory MP, who backed Badenoch for the leadership, told me: “I’m disappointed. So far, Kemi is not what I hoped she would be. There’s no strategy or vision; it’s all over the place. She has been not good enough at PMQs.”

Margaret Thatcher, who became Tory leader 50 years ago this week, admitted it was a year before she “found her feet” as leader of the opposition. It’s regarded by many at Westminster as the toughest job in politics (though don’t tell Rachel Reeves that after another difficult week).

But Thatcher had one luxury that Badenoch lacks – time. Badenoch’s plan to delay policy announcements for two years might have been right in normal times, but not when Reform UK is ahead of the Tories in the opinion polls and attracting Tory donors. Nigel Farage looks like the real leader of the opposition.

After suffering the worst defeat in their history last July, the Tories are going backwards.

Even the party’s normally ultra-loyal grassroots is not sure about Badenoch. Her ratings among members are also plummeting; they have become more likely to vote Reform since she became leader, and four in 10 think she will not lead them into the next general election.

Morale at cash-strapped Conservative HQ is poor after job cuts, and got worse when the abrasive Badenoch used a “pep talk” to tell staff to “shape up” or get out. Some Tory MPs would like to say the same to her.

There’s grumbling that Badenoch could work harder on the “rubber chicken circuit” of local Tory associations, do more to raise much needed funds, and give more media interviews rather than delegating to her shadow cabinet. Some Tories groan that she is “invisible”. When she does grab media attention, it’s sometimes when she accuses the media of misrepresenting her – as I warned would happen.

It’s a bad look to shoot from the lip and then deny saying what people think you’ve just said. The latest example was on the state pension.

Similarly, she accused the media of obsessing about trivia on Boxing Day, after she challenged Reform’s claim that it had more members than the Tories’ 131,000. Yet it was Badenoch who started this senseless fight on one of the quietest news days of the year. (Farage’s party now claims to have more than 200,000 members.)

There’s growing chatter among Tory MPs about the need for an electoral pact or an informal understanding with Reform to “unite the right” and oust Labour. Edward Leigh, the longest-serving MP, puts the chances at 70 per cent, and says a third of Tory MPs want a deal.

Farage is naturally playing hard to get, and the talk advertises the Tories’ weakness. Badenoch opposes a pact, but another leader might not – such as the energetic shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick, seen by colleagues as still running for the leadership despite having been defeated by Badenoch. Ominously for her, Jenrick is now the darling of the Tory grassroots.

Despite her vow of silence on policy, Badenoch was panicked into rushing out one on immigration, but highlighting the issue reminds voters of the Tories’ failure on it. She is right to admit the mistakes her party made in power – a vital first step towards regaining voters’ trust – but not all of her shadow cabinet are on board. Priti Patel, the former home secretary, was not prepared to see her record on immigration trashed.

The Tory leader can’t be a one-trick pony: she needs to show a direction of travel soon on the economy and the NHS, which – along with immigration – are the most important issues for the public.

In banging on about immigration, she reveals her preoccupation with Farage, but also risks repelling voters in the 60 Tory seats captured by the Liberal Democrats last year – 42 in southern England – which her party needs back to have any hope of winning an election. Perhaps Badenoch is a secret Lib Dem agent.

Her allies admit there will be “bumps in the road” but insist she will overcome them. They concede that the 1 May council elections in England will be bad for the party. The real day of danger for Badenoch is 7 May 2026, when Reform might push Labour out of power in Wales for the first time since devolution in 1999, and gain ground in the Scottish parliament elections.

If the Tories are not making progress by then, some senior Tories whisper, it will mark the end of Badenoch’s leadership.