‘Starmer sceptics’ aren’t too keen on Labour’s leader – but they’re propelling him to victory

At the election’s halfway point, the party’s seemingly unassailable 20-point lead over the Tories is down to an unlikely cohort of voters – those unhappy with the man they will make prime minister, writes pollster Keiran Pedley

Keir Starmer will launch Labour’s manifesto on Thursday (Stefan Rousseau/PA) (PA Wire)

As we reach the halfway point of the 2024 general election campaign, the big picture appears unchanged. While there are signs Reform UK has been gaining in the polls, the fundamental battle between the Conservatives and Labour shows little movement. Our most recent Ipsos Political Monitor has Labour 20 points ahead and on course for government, with a majority so large, it’s being billed as a supermajority.

All voting coalitions contain diverse groups of people, especially when they include more than 40 per cent of voters. An interesting dynamic with Labour’s is that just under a third (31 per cent) of those currently saying they will vote Labour in a few weeks’ time tell us they are dissatisfied with the job Keir Starmer is doing as leader. Meaning they will vote Labour despite not being happy with the man they will make prime minister.

So, who is this group and what issues do they care about? Looking at Ipsos data going back to the start of the year can shed some light.

“Starmer sceptics” who intend to vote Labour anyway are more likely to be women than Labour voters overall (59 per cent vs 50 per cent), they tend to be younger (42 per cent are aged under 35 vs 26 per cent) and almost six in 10 are graduates (59 per cent). The issues they care about most are similar to other Labour voters. This means the NHS (47 per cent), the economy (30 per cent) and cost of living (24 per cent).

It should be noted that the figure for the NHS of almost half is significantly above the 31 per cent of the public overall who prioritise this issue – reflecting the importance of health and public services in general to Labour’s voting coalition. Something the party will be acutely aware of if they enter government next month.

What is particularly interesting about Starmer sceptics voting Labour is the importance they place on housing. Some 23 per cent choose this as an important issue for their vote, compared to 15 per cent of Labour voters overall and 10 per cent of the public as a whole.

The fact Starmer sceptics tend to be younger is likely a factor that drives this. For Starmer sceptics under the age of 35 who will be voting Labour, 36 per cent mention housing as a key issue impacting their vote but for those aged 55+ that falls to 20 per cent, with immigration more important to that group (29 per cent). Though it should be said for both groups, the NHS is more important overall.

Interestingly, 25 per cent of the younger cohort consider foreign affairs an important issue, compared to 6 per cent of those aged 55-plus.

Might this group be vulnerable to switching from Labour as polling day approaches? Around 49 per cent say they might change their mind before the election, though this is similar to what we see for voters as a whole and not therefore a unique characteristic of this group. If they do move, it is unlikely to be to the Conservatives; 98 per cent of Starmer sceptics voting Labour are dissatisfied with the government, and nine in 10 (91 per cent) are dissatisfied with Rishi Sunak as prime minister.

What are we to learn from this group, then? Perhaps it is simply that their sheer dissatisfaction with the Conservative government is enough to keep them in Labour’s column. However, Labour will be aware that this group places great importance on public services, the cost of living and – for younger cohorts – housing (and to a lesser extent foreign affairs). Therefore, Labour will be mindful of presenting a compelling offer to these voters on these issues when their manifesto is launched.

Failure to do so runs the risk of some of this group switching to smaller parties with bolder offers on the topics they care about as polling day approaches. This is unlikely to change the fundamental result of the election but could impact the size of Labour’s majority and the type of Labour government we get. And perhaps sow seeds of discontent for the future as Labour seeks to keep its 2024 voting coalition together for the longer term.

Keiran Pedley is director of politics at Ipsos