The number that spells trouble for Keir Starmer

According to the opinion polls, the winner of the general election is clear – but Labour is rightly worried that its vote share could yet be outshone by Jeremy Corbyn’s in 2017. Anything less than 40 per cent will store up problems for Starmer’s administration, says Andrew Grice

Keir Starmer may not enjoy the honeymoon Tony Blair had in 1997 – or be given the benefit of the doubt (PA)

Keir Starmer is on course for a huge majority – but some pollsters think Labour could win 450 of the 650 Commons seats with less than 40 per cent of the vote. John Curtice, the doyen of election experts, has a warning for Labour: “You must not assume that your dominance of the House of Commons is a reflection of the position in the wider public domain.”

Some Starmer allies are nervous that on 5 July, his left-wing critics will be able to point out that Jeremy Corbyn won a higher vote share (40 per cent) than Starmer when he wiped out Theresa May’s majority in 2017. If that happens, the left will doubtless claim he could have won more votes with a bolder programme. (Never mind that Corbyn’s implausible wish list was trashed at the 2019 election.)

A win is a win under the existing rules and the quirks of our antiquated first-past-the-post system. Tony Blair won a majority of 66 on just 35 per cent of the vote in 2005. Margaret Thatcher benefited from the left-of-centre vote being divided between Labour and the Liberal-SDP Alliance. (Today, the tables are turned, and Labour is aided by a rare split on the right between the Tories and Reform UK).