How is Joe Biden really doing?

Plenty of events have gone Biden’s way while everyone pays attention to Trump. But it hasn’t changed what people think of him

President Joe Biden speaks from the South Lawn of the White House on June 15, 2023 in Washington, DC.. (Getty Images)

With all the attention focused on Miami and former president Donald Trump’s arraignment, many Americans might be forgiven if they forgot that Joe Biden currently occupies the White House.

Mr Biden campaigned betting on the American public’s Trump fatigue. During the 2020 campaign, he famously said people would not have to worry about his tweets when he took office, after Mr Trump sent out 140-character decrees at all hours.

That turned out to be enough for him to not only win the Democratic nomination but beat Mr Trump in the general election. Mr Biden rightly guessed the American public did not like having to think about their president’s latest erratic words or deeds and going about their merry way.

But just as Mr Biden doesn’t dominate the headlines with negative coverage, it also means that his approval rating hardly improves when things go his way.

And so far this month, plenty of things went his way. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 339,000 jobs in May. In addition, this week the bureau also announced that inflation rose only 0.1 per cent that same month, showing that inflation is slowly but surely coming down after it consistently plagued Mr Biden and caused his approval ratings to go down for most of 2022.

That’s good news for Mr Biden. Typically, a hot labour market means that the economy has to accept a slight spike in prices. But inflation tapering off means the worst might be behind the United States.

As if to add to the president’s streak of good luck, the Federal Reserve announced it would not raise interest rates after it had consistently raised them in an attempt to crush soaring prices. The fact that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell would decide to pump the brakes should also be good news for Mr Biden, since rising interest rates often means that the employment rate and economy as a whole takes a hit.

Then, this week, the Senate confirmed more judicial nominees, including Nusrat Jahan Choudhury, the first Muslim American female federal judge, to the US District Court for the Eastern District of New York. With a Republican House of Representatives, Democrats’ top priority is to continue remaking the federal judiciary.

In addition, after flipping one Senate seat last year, Mr Biden can afford to have Sen Joe Manchin, the cantankerous conservative Democrat who has been throwing a tantrum about the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act by opposing Mr Biden’s nominees, defect a few times if it means he has a better shot at winning re-election if he does run.

Furthermore, Mr Biden mostly stayed in the background during negotiations on the debt limit. On the surface, it looked like House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was winning the messaging war, but in the end, it also meant the that California Republican had to catch all the javelins from his conference as it revolted against him while Mr Biden’s Democrats bailed him out. Mr Biden’s signature law, the Inflation Reduction Act, also remained firmly intact.

None of that has translated into a change in how voters view him. Last week, Ipsos found that 54 per cent of Americans disapprove of the president. Furthermore, many voters seem to see his age as a liability, with even 37 per cent of Democratic and independent voters saying it makes them less likely to vote for him, according to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll.

Mr Biden presents a central predicament for many Democratic voters. Many of them set aside their own personal policy preferences and decided that, as an old white Catholic man from Pennsylvania, he was best equipped to win back the commonwealth, as well as Wisconsin and Michigan after Mr Trump stunned the world and won these crucial swing states.

Many voters likely expected that would mean that they hoped they could vote for someone that enthused them at a later date. Indeed, Mr Biden said that he saw himself as a “bridge candidate” in 2020 – he would be someone who would defeat the final boss and then hand the party off to the next generation.

But they likely did not expect that Mr Trump would refuse to concede, incite a riot and attempt another White House run. That might feel like a raw deal to many Democratic voters who would prefer someone younger like Gov Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg or a more progressive Democrat.

Similarly, not only is Mr Biden old, he’s a familiar fixture, having been a senator for the better part of four decades and vice president for most of another. Changing voters’ opinions at this point is nearly impossible.

As a result, nothing he does could possibly change what people think of him. But if he ekes out a little more votes than Mr Trump, no matter how begrudgingly, that might be sufficient for now.