Boris Johnson thought the leadership race would be a coronation. He didn’t reckon on a resurgent Hunt

Inside Westminster: The former London mayor remains comfortably ahead in polls of Tory members, but the foreign secretary might deny him the huge mandate he is hoping for

Johnson can no longer afford to underestimate Hunt (Getty)

There were cheers of joy among Team Boris when Michael Gove was knocked out of the Tory leadership contest, and they knew they would face Jeremy Hunt in the run-off among Tory members.

They judged that Hunt, unlike Gove, had a fatal weakness because he backed Remain in the 2016 referendum. They also thought he would fight a less aggressive campaign than Gove. They were probably right on the first point, but wrong on the second one.

Hunt is giving Boris Johnson an unexpectedly tough fight. He seized his opportunity to make character an issue after Johnson’s row with his partner Carrie Symonds. He is right to attack Johnson for avoiding a head-to-head TV debate before Tory members start to receive their ballot papers on 6 July. Calling Johnson a “coward” for avoiding media exposure drew blood, forcing Johnson out of his bunker to do a series of interviews.

The character issue is still running, thanks to the revelation that Johnson called the French “turds” in a clip the BBC cut from a TV series on the Foreign Office after pleading by officials. (Surprise, surprise: Johnson has “no recollection”.) It’s hard to imagine Hunt using such undiplomatic language. As Sir Alan Duncan, the Foreign Office minister, who is backing Hunt, told Radio 4’s Today programme, the choice is between “a circus act” and “a really serious person”.

Hunt is not flawless. He upset the French and other Europeans by likening the EU to the Soviet Union soon after succeeding Johnson as foreign secretary. This week he accused Johnson of having a “fake deadline” of leaving the EU on 31 October when he meant to say “fake promise”. He unintentionally implied Leave voters were Little Englanders, exposing his Achilles heel. He is telling Tory members there is not much difference between him and Johnson on Brexit, urging them to focus on “who” rather than “how”.

I suspect the differences are greater than Hunt can afford to admit. He insists he would take the UK out of the EU at the end of October if a revised deal were not in prospect at the start of the month, but he has left himself some crucial wriggle room. His delay of days or weeks to clinch an agreement could easily become months – and he would be right to avoid the damage of no deal.

Hunt insists his strategy would not end in a general election no Tory wants until after Brexit is delivered. But he cannot guarantee it, given his support for no deal in a continuing stalemate with the EU. He would then face the same Commons ready to block no deal as Johnson – if necessary, by triggering an election.

However, Hunt is right to argue that the quickest route out of the EU is via a deal acceptable to MPs. I think his better relations with the EU would give him a better chance of achieving one than Johnson.

Hunt has joined the rush to make spending promises. His plan to cut corporation tax to 12.5 per cent would cost £13bn a year. Treasury officials detect no great demand for it from business, and it is difficult to square with his desire to spend more on public services.

To his credit, Hunt won a big funding rise for the NHS. Surviving for six years as a Tory health secretary is more of an achievement than Theresa May’s six years at the Home Office. As a result, Hunt would have enemies if he became prime minister. He admits he could have communicated his case better during his bruising battle with junior doctors. But there is no doubting his passion for the NHS. He refused to be moved to the post of business secretary. Aides thought health would be his last cabinet job, after which he would set up a health think tank. Perhaps they underestimated his ambition.

Johnson will not underestimate Hunt now. He is in a real fight, not a coronation. If the public, rather than Tory members, were choosing our next prime minister, I reckon Hunt could win. His personal ratings are improving as he becomes more widely known. Ipsos MORI’s latest survey puts the two candidates neck and neck amongst the public. Johnson remains comfortably ahead in polls of Tory members, but Hunt might deny him the huge mandate he is hoping for.

After a wobbly start to the week, Johnson managed to steady his ship. Watching the second hustings for Tory members in Bournemouth on Thursday night, I saw a confident Johnson back on his game. Hunt pleaded with Tory members not to elect a populist. He had some cheerleaders in the audience and blew them a kiss at the end. But the warmth towards Johnson seemed wider and deeper. It was the same story in Exeter on Friday. The applause for Johnson’s claplines was louder than for Hunt’s.

This should not be a single-issue election on Brexit. Unfortunately for Hunt, in the eyes of those who have a vote, it is.