Yousaf has won the SNP leadership – but the real fight starts now to save his party

SNP MPs badly need their new leader to restore their party’s standing among voters – or else some may find themselves fighting an uphill battle in 18 months

In the short run, Humza Yousaf’s election as SNP leader will help steady the nerves of many an SNP parliamentarian. He was clearly the choice that most of them hoped members would make.

A number had been extremely critical of the socially conservative views expressed by Kate Forbes, not least on gay marriage.

As a result, some would have been uncomfortable serving under her leadership. Yousaf, in contrast, should have little difficulty in marshalling his parliamentary troops, while the Greens will be happy to remain in the Scottish government coalition.

Yet when the celebrations are over, a more sober mood might emerge. In truth, given the overwhelming lead that Yousaf enjoyed over Forbes in terms of endorsements from MPs and MSPs, the eventual result – 52 per cent to 48 per cent once the votes cast for the third candidate, Regan, had been redistributed – was uncomfortably close.

Polls conducted during the campaign had already revealed that Yousaf had limited appeal for those outside the SNP. Now we discover that the new leader is also not especially popular with the party faithful either.

Yet what the SNP now badly needs is a leader who can reach out to voters. In the wake of the leadership contest, the party finds itself with Labour breathing down its neck. On average, recent polls of Westminster vote intention have put the SNP on 40 per cent, down 5 points on 2019. Labour, meanwhile, are now on 30 per cent, as much as 11 points up on four years ago.

While most of Labour’s advance is the result of developments at Westminster – most notably Partygate and the fallout from the Liz Truss administration – it still means that any SNP MP who has less than a 16-point lead over Labour currently looks to be at risk of losing their seat.

On the current boundaries at least, there are 10 seats that fall within that category. However, that number could grow quite quickly if the SNP lead over Labour were to fall yet further.

And while none of the unionist parties in Scotland find it easy to secure the backing of supporters of independence, Labour is the one party that has some success in doing so. In short, SNP MPs badly need their new leader to restore their party’s standing among voters or else some may find themselves fighting an uphill battle in 18 months’ time.

Meanwhile, the SNP also needs to rekindle the debate about and case for independence. After all, part of the reason for Ms Sturgeon’s resignation was that she felt unable to push support above the 50 per cent mark that would be needed to win any future ballot. At the same time, all of the candidates in the leadership contest agreed that that objective has to be achieved before any new attempt is made to secure another referendum.

If anything, support for independence has eased somewhat in recent weeks. It now averages 47 per cent in the polls, the lowest level for four years.

Even though polls suggest that most voters in Scotland are pessimistic about the financial consequences of Brexit, they are still rather doubtful about the economic case for an independence that might allow Scotland to rejoin the EU. And it is unlikely that support for independence will be increased unless voters are persuaded of the economic case for leaving the UK.

Yet little was heard during the SNP leadership debate about what that case might be in the post-Brexit environment – either from Mr Yousaf or from any of the other candidates.

Mr Yousaf now has to show he has the ability to craft and sell a persuasive case – otherwise independence will continue to look a rather elusive goal.

John Curtice is professor of politics, Strathclyde University, and senior research fellow, NatCen Social Research and ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’