If you want to know who will win the election, follow the bookies

Paddy Power reports an 84 per cent bet count on Labour-related selections. Trump also enjoyed a big lead among punters, at least in terms of the numbers of bets placed on him

The odds have certainly changed since this picture was taken in April (AFP/Getty)

I’ve got good news and bad news for you, Britain.

Let’s start out with the good news, because goodness knows we could use some. If you followed my advice and backed Labour to win more than 162.5 seats at 5/6 on Coral’s over/under market, you can probably count your winnings. The over/under is now at 209.5 seats. Quite a move.

The same goes for if you followed my recommendation to go with the “under bet” on Lib Dem seats (5/6 to win less than 27.5 seats). The Lib Dem over/under market now stands at 10.5 seats.

That broadly reflects what the polls are telling us: namely that Labour has gained support, and the Lib Dems have lost it.

However, bookies still remain very confident that the Conservatives will win the day, despite nearly all the bets by number coming for Labour.

If they’re right, that means bad news comes for those of us in the majority of the electorate (the Tories won’t get more than 50 per cent of the vote) that isn’t too keen on the mix of middle managers, low rent toffs and people who couldn’t handle jobs outside of politics (unless you count public relations as a job) that make up the Conservative front bench.

They’re still likely to win, and if they don’t bookmakers will be facing up to what could be a record loss.

Lee Price from Paddy Power reports an 84 per cent bet count on Labour-related selections during the course of the campaign.

Jeremy Corbyn isn’t just the man of the people. He’s the man of the punters. Price says that the most popular bet has been on him to be PM after the election. You can find 9-2 on that with the Power-owned Betfair, but he’s more commonly a 7-2 shot.

The biggest move in his favour came after the six-way debate, which Theresa May sat out. His odds halved to 11-4 with Power from 6-1.

The punters’ plunge on Corbyn has been one of the big features of the campaign. He started out at 10-1 with Ladbrokes, and then drifted in the early part of the campaign when he was seen as a liability.

But Labour’s manifesto was well received by the electorate, if not the media, and lots of young voters have registered with the express intention of backing him. That’s squeezed the price because the money has followed.

Punters might care to remember, at this point, that those young voters still have to turn out when it counts, something they don’t regularly do in numbers.

Perhaps the Labour leader can change that with his outsider appeal.

He surely won’t enjoy the comparison, but in betting terms, he’s Britain’s Donald Trump.

Paddy Power reports an 84 per cent bet count on Labour related selections. Ladbrokes has seen something similar. Trump also enjoyed a big lead among punters, at least in terms of the numbers of bets placed on him.

“There is a real similarity between the betting patterns,” says Ladbrokes’ political specialist Matt Shaddick, who admits that the bookie will be left with a bloody nose if the Labour leader can spring a shock.

But that’s the big if, and for a start, the US electoral system is very different to ours. Presidential elections are usually a two horse race, with victory going to the winner of an electoral college to which each state allocates delegates, usually on a winner takes all basis.

Our first past the post system is no less perverse, but there are more than just two parties to consider here and what counts is winning a majority of the seats in Parliament.

The odds still favour the Tories to do that. There is a reason bookies haven’t cut Corbyn’s odds to reflect the number of bets they are getting on him: they don’t think he’ll do it.

Theresa May’s party is still odds on (1-4) to enjoy a majority Government after the election, and that is a bet where the odds on shot looks to represent value.

You can get a 10 per cent return on your money if you back them simply to win the most seats, as nearly every poll says they will.

It is worth noting that Ladbrokes, which famously deals with lots of high-rolling punters, hasn’t seen many six-figure bets to date. But Shaddick thinks the money will come over the next couple of days and he’s probably right.

That being said, it may be worth a few quid on Labour in some of London’s more marginal seats. The party is reportedly doing well in and around the capital. That could also be good news for my final tip: Wes Streeting to take Ilford North. He started the campaign at 5-2 with Ladbrokes, but he’s in to a best priced 5-4 in a seat he took from the Tories last time around. Keep backing him.