This election is bizarrely similar to 2015... and Labour is ready for a hung parliament

Labour and the SNP have almost been negotiating in public. Jeremy Corbyn has softened his party’s opposition to a Scottish independence referendum, while Nicola Sturgeon has conceded that a Final Say referendum on Brexit would come first

The Labour leader denies he would do a post-election deal with the SNP. But the SNP admits it would support a minority Labour government to “lock” the current Conservative prime minister out of Downing Street. The Tories warn repeatedly about the dangers of a Labour-SNP coalition.

It happened in 2015, and it’s happening at this election. There are lots of parallels between the two. On election day in 2015, I was summoned to a confident Labour HQ and told that Ed Miliband could become prime minister even if Labour won fewer seats then the Tories. It would leapfrog the Tories by striking a deal with the SNP and Liberal Democrats.

Labour had done its homework. The cabinet manual, the rule book, states that if no party wins an overall majority, what matters is who can command a Commons majority. It says a government is “expected to resign if it becomes clear that it is unlikely to be able to command that confidence [of the Commons] and there is a clear alternative”.

In the event, David Cameron won a surprise overall majority. But there’s still a chance that the cabinet manual will be pored over in the next few days. Today’s YouGov poll, which models results in Great Britain’s 632 constituencies, points to a Tory majority of 28, but a hung parliament is within the margin of error.

Team Corbyn does not like talking about its preparations for power. Labour insists it can win an overall majority, even though hardly anyone in the party really believes that is possible. Talking about a minority Labour government would play into the Tories’ hands; many voters do not want the uncertainty of a hung parliament.

However, Labour will secretly be making similar calculations to those made by Miliband in 2015. With good reason: Labour did not prepare for a hung parliament in 2017, because it was resigned to Theresa May winning a majority.

When Corbyn’s aides discussed four post-election scenarios, three were based on a Tory victory, including one in which Corbyn would have to resign. There was almost no debate about the fourth – a hung parliament. With the results still coming in, the Cabinet Office emailed Corbyn aides in the early hours to open communications in case Labour emerged as the largest party.

Interestingly, Whitehall has held “access talks” with the SNP for the first time at this election as part of its post-election planning, reflecting the SNP’s status as the third biggest party in the Commons. Civil servants also met Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Unlike Jo Swinson, the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon has not said Corbyn is “unfit” to be prime minister. Labour and the SNP have almost been negotiating in public. Corbyn has softened his party’s opposition to a Scottish independence referendum. Sturgeon has conceded a Final Say referendum on Brexit would come first. She might have to wait until after the 2021 Scottish parliament elections for her independence vote.

Labour is better prepared for a hung parliament than it was in 2017. It would be ironic if tomorrow’s results show it didn’t need to be. Corbyn needs people to vote tactically on an unprecedented scale. The polls vary widely, from 8 per cent to 20 per cent, on how many voters might do so. Others could decide once they arrive at the polling station.

Tactical voting is the Tories’ biggest fear. Boris Johnson told today’s Daily Telegraph he is “genuinely worried” it could put Corbyn into No 10. That’s not just spin to get the Tory vote out; Johnson would be short of potential partners if he doesn’t win outright. “We’re 2-1 up, but a 2-2 draw is no use to us,” one Tory candidate admitted.

The DUP would demand Johnson tear up his Brexit deal. The Lib Dems would demand a Final Say referendum. The Brexit Party would probably have no MPs. In contrast, the prospect of a Final Say referendum on Brexit would likely allow Corbyn to win the support in key Commons votes of the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and Greens.

Johnson could yet suffer from three forms of tactical voting; against Brexit (and for a referendum); against the Tories; and against him.

Although Corbyn is less popular than Johnson, Labour insiders hope the party’s policies will “shine through in the end”. They have been buoyed by the NHS being in the headlines in the campaign’s final days, and Johnson’s lack of empathy over the four-year-old boy on the floor of the accident and emergency department at Leeds Royal Infirmary.

Although the Tories remain the front-runners, the YouGov survey shows the race is not over yet. As voters go into the polling booths tomorrow, the power to stop the Boris bulldozer lies in their own hands.