We’ve seen 13 U-turns from the government concerning the pandemic – this masks decision won’t be the last

Unemployment will head towards three million by the end of this year. At the very least, the next policy change should and probably will be on Rishi Sunak’s furlough scheme

Don’t worry if you missed the government’s latest U-turn; there will be another one along in a minute. The most recent is the guidance on whether pupils should wear face coverings in communal areas in England’s secondary schools. Hours after fellow ministers told us masks were not necessary, Gavin Williamson performed a handbrake turn. The same education secretary informed us he would not U-turn over exam grades, and then did. The only difference was that the exam one took two days.

Conservative MPs are tearing their remaining hair out. Frustration has turned to despair and anger. They see an obvious pattern. The government says the science shows it is not necessary to do X. Then Nicola Sturgeon announces the Scottish government is doing it to keep people safe. Labour sees which way the wind is blowing and says it has been calling for X all along, renewing its (deserved) charge of government incompetence. Ministers in London deny they are planning a U-turn. Then they perform one, hiding behind a different and more convenient bit of scientific advice.

Off the top of my head, I can recall 12 U-turns during the coronavirus pandemic: free school meals (the Marcus Rashford one); ending the NHS surcharge for foreign health workers; extending the ban on evictions; all primary school pupils returning before the summer break; community testing; the test and trace app; local authority involvement in contact tracing; allowing MPs to vote remotely; blanket quarantine for arrivals in the UK; teacher-assessed grades for A-level and GCSE students; wearing masks in shops; and now in schools. (On checking, I realised I forgot extending the bereavement scheme for the families of health and care workers who died from the virus). All these are before we include the retreat over Huawei’s role in the 5G network.

“U-turn” entered the political lexicon when Edward Heath, the Tory prime minister, performed a major about-face on his economic policy in 1972. Ministers insist its recent changes are not remotely on that scale and reflect the need for fine-tuning in an unprecedented crisis. In a round of media interviews today, Williamson unconvincingly deployed the old trick of saying the government keeps all such matters “under review”. But to Tory MPs, it makes the government look rudderless, behind the curve and as if it is “making this up as we go along”, as the backbencher Huw Merriman told BBC Radio 4 this morning.

This matters. The lack of a consistent message on coronavirus since “stay at home” leaves the public confused about the constantly changing rules, as well as vital workers such as heads and teachers on the front line.

The only time Boris Johnson doesn’t U-turn is on whether to sack allies such as Dominic Cummings, Robert Jenrick or Williamson, who all might well have departed under a different regime. Downing Street’s defiant message is: “We don’t do trial by media.” Yet it’s highly selective: advisers who carry the can for the government’s mistakes and deflect blame from ministers, like Ofqual’s Sally Collier or Public Health England bosses, are dispensable, and briefed against in the same media.

The next policy U-turn should and probably will be on Rishi Sunak’s furlough scheme. The chancellor is adamant that it will end in October. He has to say that now: if he opened the door to helping hard-hit sectors, a very long queue would form instantly and he would have to aid all of them.

Extending his successful furlough scheme to preserve real rather than zombie jobs that are never coming back, will make sense economically and politically, especially in the red-turned-blue wall in the north and Midlands. Such an approach would be grim for hospitality but could be a lifeline for aviation, tourism, leisure and the arts.

Unemployment will head towards three million by the end of this year and is bound to become the top political issue. Three million jobs will still rely on furlough when the scheme ends, according to the Institute for Public Policy Research. The think tank calculates that two million viable jobs will be lost unless wage subsidies are extended into the new year.

At the very least, a form of furlough will be needed in areas where firms are hit by local lockdowns. Countries including Germany and France are extending their wage subsidies to around the end of 2021, leaving the UK out of step.

Sunak has had a very good coronavirus war. His bold furlough scheme has protected more than nine million jobs, covering almost 30 per cent of the workforce at its peak. But his £1,000 reward for employers for each furloughed worker brought back and still in post in January, is unlikely to prove enough of an incentive.

Understandably, Sunak worries about the cost of extending a scheme that is costing £14bn a month. But he always wanted it to be a “bridge” to help people and businesses to the other side of this crisis. We are nowhere near the other side yet. The furlough bridge is as vital as ever.