I’ve spent years researching the politics of Eurovision – here's how and why Brexit might affect the entries this year

This year, France kicks off with a song about refugees in the Mediterranean and Italy has a song about terrorism. We'll partly be able to tell what the European public thinks of us by how prevalent the English language is in other offerings

The UK's SuRie performs "Storm" during a dress rehearsal for Eurovision Song Contest 2018 at the Altice Arena in Lisbon, Portugal (Rafael Marchante/Reuters)

The Eurovision grand final is this weekend – and the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), which organises it, is keen that the event be seen as non-political. Politics always features, however.

One of the ways it does is because the contest can be seen as a kind of popularity test of nations. Some are brilliant at building a national brand through Eurovision. Moldova, for example, has become the zany outsider. The small nation came third last time and will be entertaining us in the final again this year.

In the last century, Europe loved Brand UK. We racked up a record number of second places and a healthy set of wins. Britain was in the EU and the home of great pop – even if little of that pop ever made it onto the Eurovision stage. With the Europhile Tony Blair riding high in the polls in 1997, we were runaway winners.

In the new century, things began to go awry. When we went to war in Iraq in 2003, our song got the dreaded nul points (nothing is quite straightforward in Eurovision: that year’s entry was also very poorly performed). We’ve been struggling ever since.

This disenchantment was two-way. After 2003, Terry Wogan’s commentaries became ever more acerbic and, behind that, more pained. He resigned after the 2008 contest. With a few honourable exceptions, the UK’s 21st century input to the contest hasn’t exactly shown a ruthless determination to win.

The Brexit vote didn’t have the disastrous effect on our Eurovision performance that some people predicted. The contest that followed was nearly a year after: maybe the effect had worn off. The UK ended up mid-table, with over 100 points. But now, as Brexit looms ever larger and fast becomes a reality, will Eurovision’s voters punish this year’s entry, SuRie and her song Storm?

“Not winning” won’t show this. On merit alone, the song doesn’t seem distinctive enough to win. But it’s pleasant and the singer has contest experience. Storm has a mid-table feel to it. If it fails dismally, we can read that as disapproval.

Since 2009, the contest has been half judged by the public and half by a panel of music industry professionals, who usually assess more on musical merit. If the professionals like Storm but the public do not, we can read that as disapproval. If the song ends up mid-table, with reasonable votes from professionals and public, then Eurovision’s voters are untroubled by Brexit.

The voters might show their disapproval in another way, by rooting for our old rival, France. Mercy, by the electro-pop duo Madame Monsieur, is based on the true story of a baby born in March 2017, on a ship belonging to SOS Mediterranée, an organisation which rescues migrants trying to cross the Med.

Mercy is sung, of course, in French. Songs in English have dominated the contest this century, winning every year except 2007 – and last year, when the winner was in Portuguese. This year, there are nine songs not in English, plus one with a bit of both. Last year, this figure was three (plus one mixture). Eurovision is about “being European”. Is this now starting to mean ditching the continent’s current common language, English, and being part of a polyglot community.

Mercy deals with a current political issue, as does my own personal favourite this year, Italy’s Non Mi Avete Fatto Niente (“You Haven’t Done Anything to Me”), which is about the terrorist attacks in Europe in the last few years, and the singers’ determination not to be downhearted or to react violently in return.

Israel is one of this year’s favourites, with ebullient, chicken-imitating Netta Barzilai sending out a powerful message about empowerment: she’s a large woman and proud of it. She has also come in for some criticism, and has been gracious in reply. Expect international politics aplenty if she clucks her way to victory and Israel are next year’s hosts.

Ireland quietly ruffled a few feathers this year by featuring two young men dancing together as the background to Ryan O’Shaughnessy’s gentle Together. This song was edited out by the contest’s Chinese broadcaster, Hunan TV. Albania’s tattooed Eugent Bushpepa was also removed, and rainbow flags were blurred out. As a result, the EBU banned Hunan TV from showing the second semi and the final, arguing that the removal was “not in line” with its “values of universality and inclusivity”. Eurovision, like political Europe, is a liberal project.

Which brings us neatly back to a less liberal project, Brexit. The professionals’ votes are announced first, so we shall have to wait till the end of the evening to see what Eurovision’s public voters have to say about SuRie – and by extension about Britain. It would be a sad moment for once-mighty Brand UK if we ended up with nul points again.

Chris West is author of 'Eurovision! A History of Modern Europe through the World’s Greatest Song Contest', published by Melville House UK at £9.99