European elections will show how Britain really feels about Brexit – of course the government wants to avoid it

We should do everything we can to make sure we take part. It will indicate whether the government’s approach is popular and, if not, what the country would like instead

It’s amazing how many times in the Brexit process we have been told that something unthinkable or impossible for the government to countenance has come to pass. The prospect of Britain going to the polls on 23 May to elect MEPs is the latest such example. But how likely is it?

We shouldn’t underestimate how strong the desire of both main parties to avoid the elections will be.

For the Conservative Party, the problem is obvious: few Remainers will vote for it, but Leavers are also now offside in large numbers – Conservatives will hope temporarily – due to the failure to deliver Brexit on time.

Brexit has consumed the government to such an extent that there is precious little other reason to vote for it. This hypothesis was backed up by polling data this weekend.

For Labour, the problem is more subtle. It would need to produce a manifesto, which would surely force it to end its policy of constructive ambiguity and state, in black and white, what its position actually is on a confirmatory public vote.

That process is unlikely to generate internal harmony, and if the party fails to commit to a referendum it can expect swathes of its Remainer-heavy vote share to look elsewhere.

So it seems likely that the cross-party Brexit talks will deliver yet more EU election-avoiding “fudge”. This would be an irresponsible basis on which to prepare for possibly the most important national decision since 1939, but sadly that doesn’t mean it’s impossible.

You would expect Labour to recognise the greater risk of not just enabling Brexit but initiating a Tory leadership contest likely to be won by a hardliner. Because that is likely to result in a move away from any agreed position. If that risk is realised, there won’t be a cross-party deal and the European elections will probably go ahead.

In an entirely different mindset, worlds away from the internal navel-gazing of the main parties, Change UK would welcome European elections. Because we believe these elections would act as a proxy referendum on Brexit, and it’s clear we are not alone.

Although it’s rare for me to agree with him (checks self in mirror!), Nigel Farage obviously has the same thing in mind. The European proportional electoral system is ideally suited to this: no vote is wasted.

European elections have the potential to take the national temperature on how the country really feels about Brexit, with pretty much all points on the Brexit spectrum represented.

You would have Change UK, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and the SNP backing a Remain vote in a new referendum. Ukip and the Brexit Party would argue for a rapid no-deal departure. The Conservatives would presumably back Theresa May’s deal (though who can really say?), while Labour would probably push for a softer Brexit, so there’d be something for everyone – a poll of polls.

We shouldn’t pretend that the results could ever offer a conclusive view on Brexit; a formal confirmatory vote would be the only way to find that out for sure. But we could get a steer as to whether the government’s approach is popular and, if not, what the country would like instead. Weekend polling suggests a solid base for the combined pro-Remain vote, especially given that we haven’t yet begun our campaign.

If nothing else, the government is right to fear these elections – and in a democracy, that’s generally as good a reason as any to make sure they happen.

Heidi Allen is the Change UK MP for South Cambridgeshire