Brussels will have to deal with the Catalan problem as well as Brexit

Would the European Union want to keep out Catalonia which has the 15th highest population in the EU and a larger GDP than Portugal?

The election set by the Spanish government, after the dismissal of the regional administration, has now become crucial not just for Catalonia and Spain but for the European Union (AP)

Mariano Rajoy’s appearance in Barcelona exhorting Spanish nationalists to mobilise came 24 hours after hundreds of thousands marched through the city calling for independence and the freeing of their jailed Catalan leaders. Four days earlier a general strike with the same demands had paralysed the region, cutting it off from the rest of the country and Europe.

The crisis in Catalonia shows no sign of abating. It has grown, instead, in scale and bitterness with neither side showing willingness to compromise. The deposed Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont, and four of his colleagues are in exile in Belgium claiming they can expect no justice from Madrid. Ten other ministers and officials have been jailed by Spanish courts.

The election set by the Spanish government, after the dismissal of the regional administration, has now become crucial not just for Catalonia and Spain but for the European Union. The pace and gravity of what is unfolding, Western diplomats and politicians acknowledge, has caught them by surprise. There is a realisation that Brussels will have to deal with the Catalan problem as well as coping with an increasingly acrimonious and chaotic Brexit process.

The Spanish government has declared that the declaration of independence by the Catalan government was unconstitutional and seditious, an act of rebellion. The mantra of Madrid is that it is ultimately also irrelevant. The silent majority who did not vote in the referendum will do so at the coming elections in December, it is claimed, and expose the separatists as what they are, a vocal minority.

But Rajoy’s visit to Barcelona, the first since the independence referendum, and the increasingly urgent call for the Spanish loyalists to organise indicate that Madrid is not as confident as the outcome as it claims to be. The polls have shown a rise in support for independence and these figures appear to be holding despite the failure of the separatists to form a united front.

This, to a large extent, is of the Spanish government’s own making. It has created resentment among people it could have brought on board. Around 90 per cent of the referendum vote was for independence, the Catalan administration has repeatedly stated, but only 42.3 per cent of the electorate voted and it was clear, covering the story in Catalonia earlier this month, that there was unease at the way that Puigdemont and his ministers had handled the affair with their rush to declare independence.

Their flight to Belgium – after Puigdemont declared that he would lead the newly independent nation from the front – did not go down well with many people, including some of those appearing at separatist demonstrations. Questions were asked about his presence in Belgium while Catalans were making a stand against what they saw as Madrid’s attempts to suppress democracy.

Puigdemont’s pronouncements from Brussels as the Catalan ministers who had stayed behind appeared at a Madrid court facing charges carrying up to 30 years in prison further dented his credibility. The influential newspaper, el Periodico, ran an article under the headline “Mr President, Enough is Enough”. Doubts grew at rallies in Barcelona. In one, as people around him nodded, Enrico Castells, waving a Catalan flag, was echoing complaints of others when he said, “It is odd that others had gone to defend themselves in Madrid and he is in Belgium. This is wrong; surely there should be unity in this.”

Madrid had the opportunity to build on and exploit that feeling. The accused ministers could have been given bail and reconciliatory measures which would allow both sides to draw back from the edge. Instead all but one of the ministers were jailed. This led to protests and accusations of Francoist tactics and boosted the separatist cause.

The Spanish government claimed it had nothing to do with the detention. Inigo Mendez, the official spokesman, maintained “there is a separation of powers in Spain and what has happened is in the realm of the judicial system and beyond the reach of the government.” Catalonian nationalists dismissed this, arguing that the Spanish judiciary has an inglorious history of subservience to the State.

The December election, with Catalan ministers in jail and the deposed president in exile, will be the focus of much international interest. And no election in the West at the moment would be complete without allegations of Russian interference. The European Union’s propaganda monitors report a sizeable increase in flow of fake and alarmist information in Spanish and Russian since the crisis started.

One headline in the Russian language site Polit Ekspert, warned on the day of the Catalan declaration of independence that “world powers prepare for war in Europe”. A Facebook post by a Moldovan official charged “EU officials supported the violence in Catalonia”. Parallels have been drawn between Crimea, annexed by Russia from Ukraine, and Catalonia. “Is Spain repeating Ukraine’s mistake?” Was a question on the channel Rossiya 1. The Kremlin backed broadcaster, Sputnik, based more stories on tweets by Julian Assange, who until two months ago had never tweeted on Catalonia, than on what was said by Rajoy or Puigdemont.

The polls show the pro-independence parties will win the largest share of the vote, but may not get an overall majority. The uncertainty this will create and what steps, or missteps, Madrid takes next is likely to shape the immediate future.

With the increasing possibility of there being no deal over Brexit there is at least the opportunity for the European Union to wash its hands off Britain and move on. What happens if the December vote in Catalonia paves the way for independence? Regional independence does not automatically make a new state a member of the Union. Spain would vehemently oppose Catalonia being given swift membership. But would the European Union want to keep out Catalonia which has the 15th highest population in the EU and a larger GDP than Portugal? How will the other members react if Madrid, in effect, carries out an armed occupation of the region?

The deep divisions caused by what has happened, and the campaign for Catalan independence, are unlikely to end. The crisis, and the eventual possibility of Catalexit, is something the European Union will have to deal with for a long time to come.