Every leak springs a thousand conspiracy theories

Most leaks of secret documents are not part of some clever plan to manipulate public opinion

The publication last weekend of the Yellowhammer report on the possible effects of a no-deal Brexit provoked a lot of theories about who leaked it and why. The speculation was started by a Downing Street source who tried to dismiss the story by telling some journalists: “It has been deliberately leaked by a former minister in an attempt to influence discussions with EU leaders.”

That claim was undermined when it was confirmed that the document was dated 1 August, eight days after Theresa May’s ministers resigned.

Meanwhile, it was suggested by some observers that the report had been leaked by the government to prepare the public, who would be relieved when a no-deal Brexit wasn’t as bad as they expected.

This happens every time a confidential document is leaked. A lot of people immediately assume that it is part of a cunning plan. But the truth is usually less interesting. Quite often secrets are leaked because people love gossiping or showing off.

And smartphones make it terribly easy to screenshot documents and send copies by WhatsApp.

Sometimes secrets emerge by “jigsaw” journalism. If a journalist knows about a document and talks to people who have seen it they can piece together what is in it without ever seeing the document itself.

Of course, in many cases, leaks are politically motivated. The Yellowhammer leak probably came from someone, whether a minister or an official, who thinks that a no-deal Brexit would be calamitous, and who wanted the public to have the facts.

The recent leak of the unflattering opinion of Donald Trump held by Kim Darroch, the British ambassador in Washington, was probably motivated by the desire to do down a prominent (former) public official who is opposed to Brexit.

But few leaks are quite such precision strikes.

Peter Mandelson is said to have once tried to calm Gordon Brown, raging against leaks and seeing conspiracies against him everywhere, by explaining the concept of “seepage”. It didn’t go down well, but it was an accurate description, by someone with a reputation for media manipulation, of how journalism usually works.

Yours,

John Rentoul

Chief political commentator