With 23 Democratic candidates to choose from in the 2020 presidential election, who should we cover the most?

As we prepare for the primaries in our New York office, we have to consider a number of factors – and sometimes take the polls with a pinch of salt

We’ve had a running list of Democratic presidential candidates on the office whiteboard in New York for a couple of months. But last week, as the field swelled to 23, we had to wipe the slate clean and redo it all in smaller handwriting. The 2020 race is a very crowded field.

It’s a situation that provides a challenge: how do you allocate coverage fairly when the first vote won’t be cast for more than eight months, and household names such as Joe Biden are in the same contest as obscure representatives who could walk through their home district without turning heads?

Two factors typically come into play: a candidate’s polling numbers, and the ways in which they distinguish themselves.

Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O’Rourke, Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg, for example, would all beat Trump head-to-head, according to a recent poll. As a result they get the lion’s share of coverage.

But a candidate’s strength versus Trump isn’t the only polling indicator we need to consider.

Becoming the nominee presents a far more complicated calculus than a straight head-to-head presidential election fight. The Democratic primary and caucus process to win the nomination kicks off with Iowa on 3 February followed by New Hampshire a week later.

These two states, plus Super Tuesday’s slate of contests a month later, can make or break candidates, derailing frontrunners and giving momentum to relative unknowns.

Joe Biden appears weak in Iowa, for example. A poor show in that state or in New Hampshire could suck the wind from his sails.

An outsider candidate with a strong and serious ground game in early states would show that they’re in it to win it, and not just to pad their resume or position themselves for a cabinet post.

Then there’s that distinguishing factor. Andrew Yang, for instance, is polling at a meagre 1 per cent, but he also wants to tax Amazon and Google like oil companies in order to fund a universal basic income for all Americans of $1,000 a month.

Is it feasible? Is it a vote-winner? We’ll let the public decide, but it’s certainly a more interesting policy offer than many of the bland platitudes about “working for all” (after all, who goes to the voters openly saying they’ll work for the few?)

Next month, there’s one event that could help us get a clearer picture of the strength of the field: the first Democratic primary debate, in Miami. We’ll be there for both nights of debate, getting a sense of which of the 23 contenders has a realistic chance of coming out on top. Previous elections have shown that we know nothing until those debates begin in earnest; frontrunners’ ambitions can be thwarted after one lacklustre appearance, while relative political newcomers can be propelled into the limelight. Our coverage should give you a sense of the triumphs, the downfalls, and the unexpected developments. Crowded it may be, but the 2020 race to the presidency also promises to be one of the most interesting political spectacles of the decade.

Yours,

Dave Maclean

US features editor