How MPs deploy the dark arts in the hunt for a magical route to the front of the Tory leadership race

No politician has yet admitted to changing their vote for tactical reasons, but with such powers at their disposal, who’d blame them?

Working in the Palace of Westminster can often feel like being an extra in a Harry Potter film, but parliament is never more like Hogwarts than during a Tory leadership contest, when the mysterious “dark arts” of political skullduggery work their most potent magic.

On the face of it, choosing a new leader for a political party should be a straightforward affair. You hold a vote and the most popular candidate wins.

But these are people who pride themselves on being “the most sophisticated electorate on earth”, and nothing is ever quite so simple with them.

Each round of MPs’ votes is a chance to send signals, to promote agendas and to try to influence not only the choice of the winner but also the nature of the contest and the shape of the future government.

First, there are the candidates who aren’t in it to win at all, but to stake their claim for a ministerial job. An MP who reckons their first choice is safe may well consider giving a favoured outsider a run in the early rounds to boost their profile.

Then, there is the question of momentum, that elusive quality that somehow seems to energise the campaigns of candidates like David Cameron who come from behind to win the crown. With advantage to be gained from appearing to shoot up the ratings, there are suspicions that supporters of would-be insurgents initially hold back to give an extra oomph to their rise.

For the most serious candidates, like Boris Johnson, there is the all-important question of who you face in the eventual members’ vote.

His team dismiss as “nonsense” any suggestion that Johnson has done anything other than gather the largest possible number of supporters. But rumours persist about the spells cast by his campaigning wizard Gavin Williamson, already notorious as a master of the dark arts from his time as chief whip and mastermind of Theresa May’s elevation.

Received wisdom at Westminster is that Johnson wanted Jeremy Hunt’s name alongside his on the ballot paper. What better rival than a former Remainer who presents as the “stability” candidate at a time when the party wants radical change?

The suggestion is that some MPs were discreetly encouraged to back Rory Stewart in the early rounds to disable the threat of Dominic Raab on the hard Brexit wing, then switch to Sajid Javid when Stewart started to look as if he could disrupt the race. And then they were supposedly deployed to halt Michael Gove’s advance after his surprise leap into second place.

Old Westminster hands turn up their noses at this theorising as “too clever by half”. And no MP has yet admitted changing their vote for tactical reasons.

But if there was ever a group of people for whom being too clever by half might seem a tempting option, it’s Tory MPs. And with the stakes so high, how could they resist deploying whatever magical powers they have at their disposal?

Yours,

Andrew Woodcock

Political editor