If the West gives an inch when it comes to Ukraine, Putin will take a mile

Editorial: If the last 25 years have taught us anything, it is exactly who the Russian president is – and what he is capable of

It is 25 years since Vladimir Putin was handed power on 31 December 1999 when Boris Yeltsin resigned, and it is something he has kept an increasingly iron grip on ever since.

While the Russian leader has repeatedly clashed with the West, Putin’s near three-year invasion of Ukraine – and the staunch support allies like Britain and the US have given Kyiv – has only intensified his threats and bellicose rhetoric.

As we move into 2025, the West has to be prepared to keep drawing Putin’s ire. Donald Trump, the US president-elect, has suggested he wants a swift resolution to the war in Ukraine once he takes office in January, and both Kyiv and Moscow have opened the door to peace talks. The UK and nations across Europe are aware that if Putin is given an inch, he will try to take a mile – so continued support for Ukraine on the battlefield is crucial.

The latest example of the consequences of Putin’s war in Ukraine beyond its borders was the first of the major air crashes in the last week – a few days before the tragic scenes in South Korea. On Christmas Day, an Azerbaijan Airlines plane flying from Baku to Grozny in the Russian region of Chechnya diverted across the Caspian Sea and crash-landed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 of the 67 people on board.

On Sunday, the Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev, said that the plane had been hit by fire from the ground in Russia, although he did not go as far as claiming it was intentional. That came after a phone call with Vladimir Putin, in which the Russian president apologised over the crash, but did not admit fault. The Kremlin has claimed its air defences were active in the area thanks to Ukrainian drones – but Kyiv has called on Moscow to stop spreading disinformation.

Putin’s careful choice of words over the Azerbaijan Airlines crash is in stark contrast to his denials of responsibility for the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. Investigators attributed to a surface-to-air missile fired from territory held by Moscow-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine and a Netherlands court found three men with links to the Russian military guilty of murder over their role. That suggests that the Russian president does not want to overly antagonise traditional allies like Azerbaijan. He is already being forced to rely on nations like North Korea and Iran to help the Ukraine campaign, while he has just seen the fall of another ally – Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Relinquishing control is not part of Putin’s make-up, and he has built a state machine over the last 25 years that has ensured he has kept it. We can expect the same on the international front: he will keep trying to demonise Western allies of Ukraine as much as he can, trying to project the image of the saviour of his nation. He will also be sure to keep his hand in regions like the Middle East.

Who Putin is has become clear to see over the last quarter of a century – and that is why the UK, the US, Europe and alliances like Nato need to stand firm, particularly when it comes to support for Ukraine.