The vaccine has bought us time – but no one is safe until everyone is safe

Editorial: Lockdowns cannot and should not last forever – that is why the vaccination effort is still so vital, and why the momentum has to be kept up as the forty-somethings get their call-up

The inoculation programme has made impressive progress (EPA)

At the peak of the second wave of Covid, in January, about 4,000 people were being admitted to hospitals with the disease every day. A year ago, when the first Covid wave was in danger of overwhelming an underprepared NHS, hospitalisations were running at about 3,000 a day. At the last count, the daily rate was down to about 200 – and with a much better chance of survival than ever before.

What is the cause of this transformation? Who, or what, to thank? It is tempting to point to vaccination as a key factor in the improvement, because it seems the obvious new thing that has appeared on the scene. Yet, as Boris Johnson is at pains to point out, much of the progress has actually been attributable to the lockdown endured since the start of the year.

After all, when the Covid hospitalisation rate fell to its record lows last summer – at about 100 new patients per day – there were no vaccines at all. By contrast, unlocking the schools earlier this year resulted in a marginal rise in the R rate, despite early success with the vaccine programme.

The answer to the conundrum is that both the vaccines and the lockdown have played their part. The lockdown has, obviously, reduced human contact and suppressed transmission of the virus, and thus caseloads and deaths. As a result of the lags between catching the disease, becoming ill and having to go to hospital, what is happening now is the result of a broad national effort that was taking effect many weeks ago.

Time has been bought, during which the vaccine programme made impressive progress – but, again, there are time lags at work. It takes some weeks for vaccines to be effective for the recipient, and even then there will not be 100 per cent protection. The main effect of the vaccines, as times goes on, may be to prevent death and long Covid – rather than any illness at all. This is still a huge benefit to humanity.

It is also not completely understood as to whether being vaccinated prevents a person from being infectious and spreading the virus; hence the need to proceed slowly with the unlock and stick to social-distancing protocols. Either way, it will take many months longer, and a much wider coverage among the population, for the vaccination scheme to be fully effective for the community as a whole – through the effect of herd immunity, where the virus starts to encounter difficulty in finding hosts.

Therefore, just for a change, the prime minister seems to have listened carefully to his experts and is acting with some caution. The “old” boosterish Boris Johnson of a year ago would have oversold the vaccine as a sort of miracle cure, and rushed to open up the economy. He is a slow learner, but he at last seems to be exercising the right level of caution and striking the right note of seriousness and frankness in his communications.

He is right to warn that the unlock will see a rise in infections and all that follows from that. The over-fifties, and those in vulnerable groups, will be in a much better position now – and with ever-improving treatments and techniques, the risk of death is lower than it was last year.

Inevitably, though, infections, illness and mortality rates will be on the rise, and that is why the unlock has to proceed slowly – contingent on the data. Johnson seems to be much more on-message these days. It is just as well, given the emergence of a more infective and possibly more vaccine-resistant South African variant. The roadmap may need to be revised.

Of course, lockdowns cannot and should not last forever, though their use shouldn’t be ruled out to deal with any surge in infections. That is why the vaccination effort is still so vital, and why the momentum has to be kept up as the forty-somethings get their call-up.

They need further reminders that the vaccination programme is for their good as much as anyone’s, because they are at risk of life-changing long Covid – and, possibly, infecting their loved ones. As is often said: no one is safe until everyone is safe.