The US and Nato ought to be lowering the temperature over Ukraine rather than raising it

Editorial: The west ought to be making it easier for Mr Putin to decide not to invade Ukraine, rather than making it seem like an embarrassing retreat

Vladimir Putin must know that war in Ukraine is not in his interest (Reuters)

The dangers of bluff, counter-bluff and propaganda ought to be obvious as the Russia-Ukraine standoff nears what appears to be a crisis. Some analysts suggest that Joe Biden has sounded the alarm about an imminent Russian invasion as a way of deterring Vladimir Putin from staging a false-flag operation that would allow him to claim to be acting against Ukrainian “aggression”.

This seems a dangerous game to play, not least because the greater the expectation of Russian military action, the higher the cost for President Putin in stepping back from the brink. The US and Nato ought to be making it easier for Mr Putin to decide not to invade Ukraine, rather than making it seem like an embarrassing retreat.

However, we should be clear that this crisis is essentially of Mr Putin’s making. The Independent has always sought to understand Russian pride, and the way in which some of the “end of history” triumphalism that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union can be seen through Russian eyes. But that history is no excuse for Russian aggression towards Ukraine, which has already resulted in the annexation of Crimea, and in Russian-backed separatism in Donbas.

The idea that Nato’s eastward expansion requires Mr Putin to mobilise the 100,000 troops now on the Ukrainian border is absurd. Nato expanded as a result of the decisions of sovereign democratic nations, and the last extension of the alliance eastward was when Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic states joined 18 years ago.

If the people of Ukraine want to join Nato, that is their sovereign right, although Nato members have been reluctant to encourage them to do so. Mr Putin has done far more to drive the Ukrainian people into the arms of Nato than Nato has ever done. His claim, more or less explicit, that Ukraine is part of greater Russia has done more to stimulate Ukrainian national identity than any feeble US-funded propaganda promoting liberal democracy.

President Biden and Boris Johnson are right to point out the fundamental truth: that invading and occupying Ukraine is a terrible idea from Mr Putin’s own point of view. Far more than Crimea and Donbas, and far more especially than Chechnya, it would risk large numbers of Russian lives, and vast resources, in an unwinnable guerrilla war.

To keep up to speed with all the latest opinions and comment sign up to our free weekly Voices newsletter by clicking here

Mr Putin must know this, which is why a full-scale invasion has always seemed unlikely. It has long seemed more plausible that Mr Putin is engaged in posturing to rouse nationalist sentiment at home and to secure concessions abroad. At least, we hope that he is bluffing. He presumably hopes to intimidate Ukrainians, and to secure promises from the US and Nato that they will respect the Russian sphere of influence in eastern Europe.

Those are not undertakings that western leaders should give, as they are incompatible with the right of self-determination of the peoples of Ukraine and of Belarus. But equally, Mr Biden and Mr Johnson should avoid raising the stakes in ways that make it harder for Mr Putin to bring this crisis to an end without bloodshed.