Ukraine’s place lies in Nato – but the question is still ‘when?’

Editorial: The war has changed Ukraine... it will never willingly be part of a Russian sphere of influence, let alone a Russian empire

12 July 2023 ( Dave Brown)

War changes things. There was a case, before Vladimir Putin launched his attempt to subdue the whole of Ukraine, for being cautious about Ukraine’s accession to Nato. It could be argued before February last year that accelerating Ukraine’s membership of the North Atlantic alliance would be regarded as a “provocation” by President Putin’s regime.

It would have been wrong for Mr Putin to regard Ukraine’s joining a defensive alliance in this way, of course, but there was an argument of realpolitik that, if it is known that something would be seen as a provocation by a nuclear-armed power, it made sense to think twice about it.

The world has now changed. Mr Putin, in his own mental universe, has already been “provoked”, and launched a special military operation to defend the people of greater Russia from the imaginary “Nazis” based in Kyiv.

Mr Putin’s escalation of the war against Ukraine, inspired by myth and mysticism, has created a new reality, which is that Ukraine is never going to be part of a Russian sphere of influence, let alone a Russian empire. Its people feel a fiercer national identity than ever before, one that is defined more sharply against Russia as the enemy and the aggressor. Symbolically, the new Ukraine is led by Volodymyr Zelensky, a Russian speaker who sees his nation’s future as lying with Nato and the European Union.

President Zelensky was upset, as he travelled to the Nato summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on Tuesday, to discover that he had not been consulted in early discussions about the wording of the communique. He was dismayed that his allies were considering “vague wording” about “conditions” for inviting Ukraine to join Nato.

He said: “This means that a window of opportunity is being left to bargain Ukraine’s membership in Nato in negotiations with Russia. And for Russia, this means motivation to continue its terror.” He is right that “uncertainty is weakness”, and that there is a risk of giving Mr Putin an incentive to prolong the war. This is one of the reasons for refusing to give Ukraine an undertaking that it can join Nato when the war is over – it means Mr Putin will want to ensure that the war is never over.

Equally, however, President Zelensky must understand that Ukraine cannot join Nato while it is at war with Russia – that would immediately engage article five of the North Atlantic Treaty, that an attack on one is an attack on all. The war has changed Ukraine, but it has not changed Russia’s status as a nuclear-armed state, and it has not changed the reluctance of Nato, as a nuclear-armed alliance, to enter into a direct military conflict with Mr Putin.

The world is watching as Nato leaders try to resolve this dilemma. They need to recognise the post-war reality, which is that Ukraine will be part of “the West”, and that its long-term future lies with Nato and with the EU. But they must also pay attention to the incentives operating on Mr Putin’s regime, and maximise the pressure on the Russian president to bring the war to an end.

Mr Zelensky may succeed in taking out references to the “conditions” of Ukraine’s Nato membership. The usual requirements of a polity free of corruption may have to be waived in this hour of historic necessity. But he should not expect his fellow summiteers to put any date in writing for Ukraine to join Nato.