Putin is gambling that the West will abandon Ukraine – we won’t

Editorial: Western Europe faces its most difficult winter since the end of the Second World War – but is prepared to make the sacrifices, rather than be forever held hostage by Russia

The Kyiv strikes also suggest that President Putin’s windy threats about nuclear escalation are just that – a bluff (AP)

The wrath of Putin”, some call the Russian strikes on multiple cities, including central Kyiv, which are plainly acts of retaliation for the attack on the Russia-Crimea Kerch bridge on Saturday.

Wrathful they certainly were. They were also a nasty reminder that the Russians, though demoralised and in retreat, still have some heavy missile weaponry at their disposal. It was no accident that downtown Kyiv was included in the strikes (though the hit on the visa office of the German embassy may not have been deliberate).

Vladimir Putin wants to intimidate Ukrainian leaders, terrorise civilians and further destroy Ukrainian cultural identity by taking out museums.

It is a characteristically callous, cowardly and counterproductive attack. It also illustrates a number of things about Russian weakness – such as just how badly the “special military operation” is going. A remote attack on mostly civilian targets from far away reminds us, once again, that the Russian military has been unable to occupy Ukrainian territory and subjugate the country as planned in February.

The Russians will not be able to prevail militarily purely by bombing Ukrainian towns and cities. If that were the case, then the war would have been won long ago. The flag of the Russian Federation would now be flying over the presidential palace in Kyiv.

The Kyiv strikes also suggest that President Putin’s windy threats about nuclear escalation are just that – a bluff. The Russians are sticking to the same failed playbook and are fully conscious that any use of nuclear weaponry would trigger an American-led response. It is simply not worth the risk.

What they have left is pulverising settlements into dust and torturing and murdering Ukraine’s population. The appointment of a new commander, General Sergei Surovikin, with a reputation for savagery won in Syria, confirms that Russia has no other strategy than terror and annihilation. This sort of approach tends not to win over Ukrainian hearts and minds.

The Kremlin, ever arrogant, has further alienated the United States. But it has also placed the other superpower on the outside; one that has been obligingly propping up the Russian economy – China. At his last summit with President Xi, Mr Putin publicly admitted Beijing’s concerns about his failing war. Now, China says it hopes for a “de-escalation” – a polite but desperate plea for Russia to declare victory and end the war, more or less immediately.

The Chinese Politburo’s concerns are purely centred on the interests of the People’s Republic. The war in Ukraine has already inflicted enough damage on the world economy and China’s crucial export markets; more threats of a nuclear dimension might be enough to tip the world into a slump. The Ukraine war certainly does little to strengthen China’s security, any chance of rapprochement with America – or hopes for a peaceful reunification with Taiwan.

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Most of all, the attack on Kyiv will merely strengthen the resolve of the Ukrainian people to fight on. Their resistance to the invaders has awed the world. It was especially impressive in the early stages of the conflict, before sanctions and Western military assistance began to take their toll on Mr Putin’s poorly equipped and badly led troops.

There can be no peaceful or permanent annexation of Ukrainian territory because Ukraine and its friends in the West find it intolerable. Russia, therefore, cannot win the war, even if it prevailed militarily. It would be permanently isolated from the world economy. The Ukrainians would make the Russian occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s look like a tea party.

Yet the resolve of Europeans generally has held, despite Mr Putin’s weaponisation of energy supplies and the cost of living crisis.

Western Europe faces its most difficult winter since the end of the Second World War – but is prepared to make sacrifices, rather than be forever held hostage by Russia. The United States is also prepared to stand up for the rights and sovereignty of smaller nations; a welcome break from the recent practice of American foreign policy.

President Putin is gambling that, eventually, Western democracies will cave in and accept at least the status quo – and thus abandon Ukraine. Unfortunately for him, there are signs that the Russian people and elements in the Russian government and military will abandon him first.