Tory MPs may be enjoying the distraction of Trump’s visit – but he’s not pulling the strings, the 1922 Committee is

It might all come to a climax sooner than expected once Theresa May has departed and the US president returns home. But it is still impossible to know for sure when a new prime minister will ascend the steps into No 10

After the pomp of a royal banquet at Buckingham Palace on Monday, Donald Trump got down to the real meat of government business today, meeting a lame duck prime minister to discuss chlorinated chicken.

The joint press conference that followed the leaders’ meeting held few surprises in the end.

The president was, as is his wont, at turns direct and discursive. Ms May, who seemed frankly energised by the knowledge of her impending departure, trotted out the expected platitudes and gave nothing away when it came to talk of future trade deals. She even won a victory of sorts when Mr Trump appeared to backtrack on his threat to limit UK-US intelligence sharing as a result of the row over the use of Huawei technology in Britain’s 5G infrastructure.

On Brexit, the president naturally reminded the assembled media that he had predicted what was going to happen. But he went on to suggest that Theresa May had “brought it to a very good place”, even adding that “she’s probably a better negotiator than I am”. He may not have meant it, of course, but for a man not afraid to blow his own trumpet, even surface-level humility is something to hold close.

Climate change and the NHS both received a mention, as billed, with disagreement over the former kept largely under wraps, and the president keen to reiterate his view that the latter will be up for grabs in any future trade negotiations. Ms May wriggled out of that, but several of those who would like to replace her were clearer in their subsequent denunciation of such an idea. Never has it been more fashionable for Conservative MPs to say that the NHS is “not for sale”.

Indeed, the Tory leadership contest was very much the elephant in the room today. If Brexit does come to pass it will be shaped by one of a dozen Conservative candidates. And if they can achieve what Ms May failed to do, they will then embark on a trade negotiation with Mr Trump – assuming he is still in office by then, of course.

The president has no role in choosing the next prime minister, but you would be hard pressed to know it, such has been the interest in his every utterance about those who want to take the nation’s helm.

At the weekend he praised Boris Johnson, who it emerged today had declined a one-to-one meeting with the president – wary perhaps of being seen as some sort of Trump lackey. Michael Gove showed no such anxiety, jumping at the chance to catch up with the man he interviewed for The Times two years ago. How he must have caught his breath then to hear Mr Trump say at today’s press conference that “I don’t know Michael Gove”.

Even worse, he then discovered that the president plans to hold a tête-à-tête with Jeremy Hunt too. And while all the potential prime ministers waited their turn, Nigel Farage, the man who would be Brexit kingmaker, had jumped in before any of them, enjoying tea with the president at the ambassador’s residence.

When Friday comes, however, and both the president and prime minister have left town, we will remember that it is the backbenchers of the 1922 Committee who will shape the Conservative leadership contest more than anyone else. Today they recommended a change to the rules in an effort to narrow the field of contenders, suggesting that candidates will require eight MP nominations in order to stand.

The same backbenchers will corral and be corralled in the coming weeks, before a final pairing is put to the party membership. It might all come to a climax sooner than expected but, as things stand, it is still impossible to know for sure when a new prime minister will ascend the steps into No 10.

For Conservatives, Mr Trump’s visit is a useful distraction – from the grim results in the recent European elections; from the grim result to come in Peterborough; from the irresolvable conundrum that is Brexit; and from the general chaos the party has become mired in.

But by the end of the week, the distraction will have passed – and nothing will be any clearer than before.