The scandal-hit Tories are at their lowest point – but things can still get worse

Editorial: Rishi Sunak is unable to erase the dismal legacy he inherited but his own misjudgements have exacerbated the problem

19 April 2024 (Dave Brown)

The Conservatives seem set on turning 2024 into a record-breaking year for themselves – but not in a good way.

In one sense, they have already plumbed depths that have eluded previous Tory administrations in their dog days. The final phase of the Conservative administration that fell from power in 1964 was hit by some spectacular scandals, the most celebrated of which remains the Profumo affair, which combined claims of Russian espionage with the public exposure of the swinging ways of the British upper classes.

John Major’s government was critically weakened by a seemingly never-ending and bizarre episode of unconventional – and indeed improbable – sexual adventurism quite at odds with what the public took to be his “back to basics” agenda. (Major’s own lapse in fidelity was only revealed after he’d left office – a small mercy for all concerned.)

Yet the current succession of Tory MPs who have been accused of, suspended for, or convicted of misbehaviour far exceeds, in both quality and quantity, anything that has gone before. “Sleaze” seems an inadequate word to describe the sheer range of misdemeanours, from lying to parliament to the latest stories about the MP for Fylde, Mark Menzies, one of which involves a drunk dog (another first). He denies the allegations. And we have still not heard all there is to hear about the consequences of William Wragg’s entanglement in a honeytrap plot.

Finding oneself held captive in the early hours by “bad people”, or indeed in one of any number of similarly compromising positions, seems to be a habit among Tory MPs – and if it were not so pathetic, and such a potential security risk, it would be amusing. It has certainly made life harder for satirists – and for Tory chiefs trying to prevent the party’s annihilation.

Boris Johnson may take his fair share of the blame for setting such a poor example to his party – but although he set the bar low, Conservative parliamentarians have continued to sink lower during Rishi Sunak’s tenure. Like Major with his (albeit misinterpreted) “back to basics” slogan about family values, Mr Sunak also handed his opponents a handy stick to beat him with when he took office and proclaimed from Downing Street that his government would stand for and display “integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level”.

Just as their standards for personal behaviour have got lower, so too have the Tories’ poll ratings – and the two trends are not, of course, unconnected. The latest Ipsos poll puts support for the party at a mere 19 per cent, which is even lower than the nadirs reached by the May, Major, Thatcher and Heath administrations, all of which tasted unparalleled unpopularity in their day.

The rise of Reform UK has eaten into the party’s core support, but many disillusioned Tories across the country have defected straight to Labour – though often with no great enthusiasm. Mr Sunak may try to dismiss all of this as a mere protest, but that will be of little comfort to his colleagues who face political oblivion and, more to the point, unemployment at the next general election. The demand for recently dumped Conservative MPs is unlikely to meet the surge there will be in supply by the end of the year.

Before that, the party faces its toughest yet round of local elections in England and Wales, and the worst national result since the freakish 2019 European elections, when the party failed to campaign and Theresa May was rewarded for her efforts to get a Brexit deal with 9 per cent of the vote.

In any case, the Tories seem likely to lose hundreds of council seats, as well as their remaining areas of control in cities and counties – and, most humiliating of all, the defeat of their two high-profile elected mayors: the well-regarded Andy Street in the West Midlands, and the rather more controversial Ben Houchen in Teesside.

Combined with another likely loss of a parliamentary by-election in Blackpool, the election results in a fortnight’s time will once again open up fevered, desperate speculation about the future of Mr Sunak’s leadership.

Yet, while Mr Sunak has made his own mistakes, not least in his irrational fixation on the Rwanda plan, and proved something of a disappointment, replacing him would not improve the Tories’ prospects by very much – and, if the likes of Suella Braverman were to be the new prime minister, it could push the party even lower in the public esteem.

It cannot be easy for Mr Sunak, an intelligent man who can see what is heading towards him as well as anyone can. With a flaccid economy and a general sense of malaise about the state of the country, it doesn’t seem very likely that something will turn up to transform his fortunes in the coming months.

Even if he manages to bundle some unfortunate refugees onto a flight to Kigali, squeeze in some more tax cuts, and preside over interest rates finally starting to edge down, he’s not going to enthuse an electorate that has long ago made up its mind for change. The grim public mood means that Mr Sunak is basically powerless to control his own destiny.

Liz Truss’s latest attempt at rehabilitation has only reminded everyone of the record-breaking and ruinous economic situation she left behind, and presented voters with the terrifying possibility that she wants to make a comeback – and that her party is unhinged enough to give her another chance.

Mr Sunak is unable to erase the dismal legacy he inherited, but his own misjudgements have exacerbated the problem. It is as if he has been locked in the boot of the Conservative motor car, with people like Mr Wragg, Mr Menzies, Ms Braverman and Ms Truss grabbing at the steering wheel as the vehicle heads for the cliff edge – and a parliamentary wipeout.

Mr Sunak should, by rights, put himself, his party and the country out of their misery and call an election. At this rate, things – to borrow a phrase – can only get worse.