Theresa May is enjoying a fruitful honeymoon period – but it might not last

Given that the country has had the shock of that Brexit vote, and seen a collapse in business and consumer confidence as a result, Ms May has done well to do as much as she has to calm nerves

Theresa May is enjoying a peaceful walking holiday in the Alps (Reuters)

Given the state of her competition, at least outside Scotland, Theresa May ought to be seeing encouraging ratings in the polls – and so she is. Our latest survey reveals that she enjoys substantial personal support, and so much so that she has overtaken Boris Johnson as the most popular politician in the country. Ominously, and despite the fervent devotion he receives from many in his own party, Jeremy Corbyn continues to lag behind. Mr Corbyn's only comfort is that his leadership rival, Owen Smith, remains obscure.

Still, it is still far too early to call the next general election. Yes, Ms May has displayed a sure touch in her choice of Cabinet ministers, has said all the right things about creating an opportunity society, and wisely called in the Hinkley Point nuclear project for another look. She skilfully executed the trick of changing leaders and freshening her party's appeal, even though her predecessor as Conservative prime minister botched the EU referendum (and Ms May was, nominally, a Remain supporter).

Given that the country has had the shock of that Brexit vote, and seen a collapse in business and consumer confidence as a result, Ms May has done well to do as much as she has to calm nerves and convince the electorate – against the reality – that she leads a united party presiding over a successful economy. The decision to guarantee replacement money for EU farming, science and regional aid, post-Brexit, shows that Ms May and her chancellor Philip Hammond are consciously avoiding unforced errors.

However, new prime ministers often enjoy a honeymoon period, and, in recent decades, only Tony Blair's extraordinary early run of popularity exceeded a few months. We recall with a shudder the debacle of prime minister Gordon Brown's fall from grace, starting with the snap "election that never was" in 2007. Ms May was right to rule out an early election, though the temptation to exploit Labour's divisions must be great indeed.

And yet in the four years or so to the next election Ms May faces formidable challenges. Not the least will be trying to keep Scotland in the UK – which is only again a danger because her party conducted an entirely unnecessary vote on Europe, the gamble that failed. Worse still, so much of that process is out of her hands, with Nicola Sturgeon holding the initiative on a second independence vote.

The economy is also in jeopardy. Whatever the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, it remains the case that the future access the UK will have to the single market will not be as good as it is now. Big and small companies alike will continue to postpone investment plans until the uncertainty is over. The property market, especially commercial property, seems set for a slowdown. The decline in sterling, though essential for exporters, will inevitably push the cost of living higher. The British public may have had enough of experts, but that doesn't mean the experts are always wrong. It would be surprising if there was not a large rise in joblessness, as many predict, just as Ms May and her party go into the 2020 election.

So the Conservatives have their work cut out for them. Their main political problem is to persuade the voters that all of this real and rising economic pain will be worth it for the economic gains Brexit will bring, inevitably some decades into the future. The Tories' main political advantage will be a divided and routinely chaotic opposition. A revival in Liberal Democrat fortunes and a further surge in Ukip support could have unpredictable results.

What is certain, though, is that if the Conservatives continue to enjoy a clear lead over a dazed and confused Labour Party under the new parliamentary boundaries Ms May has at least the prospect of winning a mandate of her own, even with a stagnant economy, and even with a UK faced with losing Scotland and even Northern Ireland. In which case, by the way, Mr Corbyn has said he will stay on as Leader of the Opposition. Post-Brexit Britain really will be a different country.