Russia may find itself receiving an offer from China it cannot refuse

Editorial: China, the great opportunist, is taking advantage of the chance for growth

President Xi Jinping is an unlikely sort of peacemaker (AP)

President Xi Jinping is an unlikely sort of peacemaker. His government has been responsible for unspeakable cruelties against the Muslim Uyghur people in Xinjiang region, the suppression of protest, the rule of law and democracy in Hong Kong, and the routine abuse of human rights across the entire people’s republic.

His armed forces have been buzzing and intimidating Taiwan for many years, as well as menacing neighbours in the South China Sea. Yet now the tyrannical supreme leader of China is going around the world brokering peace deals. It is a conundrum.

Mr Xi is in fact on something of a roll. Fresh from getting Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations, and thus begin to end their pitiless proxy war in Yemen, he is off to Moscow next week to preach the ways of peace to Vladimir Putin, a tough customer.

China has already published its peace plan, which, though unsatisfactory, is at least evidence that Beijing doesn’t see the matter as a purely “internal” Russian affair, and that it is concerned about the effect of the war on the global economy.

As the workshop of the world and the principal exporting power on Earth, China has an essential national interest in stability and stopping the “deglobalisation” of the world economy that has gathered pace in recent years.

The recent party congress, with its disappointing (for China) projections of economic growth of 5 per cent a year, highlights just how much the country needs the West as a market and as a source of investment, and, even with the progress of recent decades, as a source of technological knowhow.

War, in other words, is bad for business, and that’s as true of Russia and Ukraine as much as Iran and Saudi Arabia. Hence, Mr Xi must want to stop the fighting in Ukraine more than he desires a Russian victory, which must be something of marginal significance to him.

In that context, the Chinese leader will impress upon his volatile friend again how disastrous any nuclear escalation might be (including the bombing of civilian nuclear power stations), and any spread of the conflict that would pull Nato fully into the war.

Of course, China isn’t passionately committed to the welfare of the people of Ukraine, bringing war criminals to justice or restoring Crimea to the war-torn nation; but as a restraining influence on President Putin, China is the only game in town right now.

Lest we forget, China is a great opportunist – and we should not be surprised that it has spotted a vacuum and is now taking advantage of an opportunity for growth.

Mr Xi has some considerable leverage over Mr Putin, which is likely to secure a serious hearing in the Kremlin. Thanks to Western sanctions, and China’s half-hearted attitude to them, Russia is more dependent than ever on China for financing its war, as a replacement destination for its energy exports and as a supply for non-lethal (presumably) industrial goods.

Without China’s diplomatic and economic assistance, the Russian war effort would be in even greater jeopardy. Indeed, its economy and war effort might have collapsed by now.

China can have no interest in trying to help Russia win its unwinnable war for it, and, despite all the frictions and rogue balloons, does not want to be sanctioned by the US and the EU for selling arms to Russia.

So China may well use its influence on Russia in a relatively benign way. If nothing else, it confirms how China is now the senior partner in this “friendship”, and that, despite the warm words about there being “no limits” to their partnership, Russia is virtually a vassal state of China.

It is possible, though somewhat wishful, to imagine that next week Mr Xi will come away with some Russian agreement to engage in peace talks, with the Chinese plan as a starting point.

For Moscow, it would be a smart move because it places the onus on President Zelensky and the West to respond in a positive manner, and not look like they seek war in Ukraine as a proxy for war on Russia.

China and Russia both know that the Russian spring offensive, such as it is, has proved underwhelming, and where breakthroughs have occurred, as in Bakhmut, these are been down to the Wagner Group mercenaries and not Russian regular forces.

They can also see, on the horizon, hundreds of Leopard 2 tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, modern fighter jets and other formidable weaponry on their way to decimate any Russian forces they encounter, and, quite plausibly, a complete Russian rout.

Some sort of uneasy ceasefire, complemented by some restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, would seem to be China’s preferred medium-term outcome. Mr Putin might find himself being made an offer by the president of China that Russia cannot refuse.