Rishi Sunak is running out of time to get control of his party

Editorial: Unless the PM can get a grip on the behaviour of senior Tories, what might have been his last big chance to assert some semblance of authority on party – and indeed on country – will quickly turn into yet another very public jostling for position

If Sunak allows Conservatives to return, over the coming days, to the dreary bloodsports of which they are now so overly accustomed, then he has no chance (BBC/AFP/Getty)

This week’s damning Institute for Fiscal Studies report, which states that the 2019 parliament has been the most tax-raising parliament on record, and is likely to end with taxes rising to a huge 37 per cent of national income, has predictably caused distress among Tories, over which Rishi Sunak must quickly take control.

That it should be a Conservative government, not a Labour one, that has presided over such dramatic tax increases makes clear the enormous challenges the government has faced. The need for such widespread tax rises is undoubtedly partly the consequence of austerity and of Brexit, but there are other huge factors that have been entirely beyond the government’s control.

In other words, taxes that have only been raised out of extreme reluctance cannot simply be cut again just to placate Tory MPs who are opposed to high taxes as a point of principle.

Mr Sunak, to his credit, refused in his traditional pre-conference interview with the BBC to commit to cutting taxes before the election. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt also said several weeks ago that tax cuts at the moment were “virtually impossible”.

The prime minister will not have enjoyed Michael Gove’s calculated intervention, calling for tax cuts before the election. Mr Gove is a well-known, highly practiced and highly able menace, but the prime minister has no alternative but to hold his nerve.

What is difficult for him is that no one quite believes his refusal to commit to tax cuts now means that he won’t announce tax cuts later, at a more electorally advantageous moment. But he will know he is now effectively forced to say that something is a bad idea at this point, which he will hope to say is a good idea in a few months’ time. He will have to hope there is sufficient economic improvement that will allow him to change tack without looking like he is acting out of desperation.

Over the next few days of his party’s conference, Mr Sunak risks losing control. A spectacular mess has been made over the plans to scrap HS2 Phase 2 that would take high-speed rail to Manchester, which were secretly briefed out by government sources, and now the government has spent more than a week refusing to clarify or comment on them. They will have to somehow uphold this rather ridiculous non-denial denial for an entire conference in Manchester itself.

Such things reinforce the sense that the game is up, that the tide has come out on Mr Sunak and is not coming back. That the return of “professional” government has been the same old rolling chaos.

Unless Mr Sunak can get a grip on the behaviour of senior Tories, what might have been his last big chance to assert some semblance of authority on party – and indeed on country – will quickly turn into yet another very public jostling for position. A de facto leadership contest – and the public has seen more of such things than it can possibly stomach.

If he can talk his own party around to his way of doing things, he still has lots to offer. The next election is almost certainly beyond him, but not that long ago, it was not considered a certainty that losing an election must cost a party leader their job. The Conservatives could do a lot worse than to consider what they may currently think unthinkable. If, in a year’s time, Mr Sunak can point to a record of being honest about the difficulties the country faces, being honest specifically about wanting lower taxes but seeing that such things were not possible at the time, then a case could be made for his carrying on from opposition.

But if he allows Conservatives to return, over the coming days, to the dreary bloodsports of which they are now so overly accustomed, then he has no chance, and no one will stand to benefit.