Rishi Sunak would do well to ignore Suella Braverman’s poison pen and empty threats

Editorial: Braverman is right to say time is running out for the PM, but he now has more freedom of manoeuvre

(Dave Brown)

Always a stranger to humility, Suella Braverman’s excoriating letter to the prime minister is disfigured by its acrid personal attacks on Rishi Sunak and some highly disputable self-aggrandising claims about herself. She tells Mr Sunak, in effect, that he is only in No 10 thanks to her “pivotal support” in the second Tory leadership contest last year. There is something in that, but that doesn’t make him eternally beholden to her. The rest of the text is a series of whinges that fully justifies the view that Ms Braverman was insufferably impertinent and disloyal during their uncomfortable time together – and that he was more patient with her than anyone realised.

Most significant though, is that Ms Braverman calls on him only to “change course” – there is no demand for his resignation. Despite its fiery tone and grievance-packed nature, this is a damp squib. She is looking towards a leadership election after, and not before, the next general election.

As an exercise in positioning herself to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as the next leader of the opposition, rather than replacing Mr Sunak now, Ms Braverman’s recent activities have much to commend them, on those narrow grounds of personal ambition. After a heavy defeat at the general election and in Opposition, freed from the constraints of government, the Conservatives may well turn to her – but not yet.

A querulous bunch even at the best of times, those on the Tory right are, unsurprisingly, deeply unhappy with the cabinet reshuffle. Their anger is not assuaged by her letter to Mr Sunak. To her growing fanbase – especially among the membership – she was not simply a home secretary who said the things they wanted to hear, but was “one of their own”. A former chair of the European Research Group, she enjoyed the added distinction of being one of the “Spartans” who voted against every single variant of a Brexit deal during Theresa May’s administration.

To see her cast out – and David Cameron making a comeback – has left many of her ideological soulmates in a state of splenetic disbelief. Having lost Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and now Ms Braverman, as well as less totemic figures such as Priti Patel and Jacob Rees-Mogg, they feel that the party they used to dominate has been taken from them by a motley crew of Remainers and centrist dads. The return of Andrea Leadsom to government, Richard Holden’s appointment as party chair and Esther McVey’s appointment as a so-called “minister for common sense” are correctly regarded as sops to the right.

Yet, frothy as their response has been, it has mostly been expressed in WhatsApp groups and behind closed doors. In public, there is little sign of any effective resistance to the prime minister’s unexpectedly brutal apparent lurch to the centre – and there seems little chance of it transpiring. Ms Braverman warns against it, but with no real force. There is talk of using a “nuclear option” against Mr Sunak, but no sign of a finger on any button, let alone thermonuclear warheads. Thus far only one letter calling for a vote of no confidence in Rishi Sunak has been submitted to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, from Andrea Jenkyns, the most predictable of the “usual suspects” on the right. It has failed to light the fire of rebellion, and Ms Braverman has in any case refused to head up such a revolt.

Lord Cruddas, a long-time ally of Mr Johnson and organiser of the rightist Conservative Democratic Organisation, declares that “the coup is complete, Remain has won and democracy has lost”. He does exaggerate – Mr Sunak has a more respectable Eurosceptic and fundamentalist pedigree than Mr Johnson – but his pessimistic tone is telling. There is a strong sense that it is now far too late for any change of leadership, because the general election is so near, and after the fall of Mr Johnson and the Truss experiment, the public would regard it as a ludicrous act of self-indulgence. The result would be an even bigger wipeout at the general election than is already on the cards. Ms Braverman’s remarks tacitly accept this.

Ironically, it is Mr Sunak’s electoral weakness that is acting as his most effective defence against defenestration. He knows this, and he also knows that he has little chance of improving the party’s popularity and his own authority if he is seen to be weak. Reportedly, his office was contacted by dozens of backbenchers on the right of the party over the weekend urging him not to sack Ms Braverman. There were coordinated letters from some of the plethora of backbench factions that litter the parliamentary party, and support for the beleaguered home secretary in the Tory press. Mr Sunak chose to ignore them because, unlike a year ago, he no longer needs Ms Braverman or their acquiescence to stay in No 10. Even Mr Rees-Mogg warns against more instability at the top of the party. For better or worse, Mr Sunak, now in a novel partnership with Mr Cameron, is secure.

That sudden acquisition of some prime ministerial authority, rather than Mr Cameron’s renaissance as such, was actually the most important development in recent days. Mr Sunak stood up for himself, and his enemies were found wanting. They are divided, as, in truth, they have been ever since Brexit “got done”; it was the one overriding objective that could unite them all. Now they have at least three or four figureheads vying to lead them – Mr Johnson, Ms Truss, Ms Braverman and, emerging but still in post, Kemi Badenoch. The right is also fatally compromised by the abject failure of the brief Truss administration, which showed just how unrealistic their alternative economic strategy is. The failure of Brexit to live up to expectations has also damaged their cause and the personalities associated with it.

Ms Braverman is right to point out that time is running out for Mr Sunak; but as recent days demonstrate, he has freedom of manoeuvre. He should shift policy on migration and the so-called “culture wars” closer to the centre, and ignore Ms Braverman’s empty threats. At this stage in the parliament, he has nothing to lose.