The government has some decisions to make over schools and Covid-19 vaccinations

Editorial: With regulatory approval of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for those aged 12 to 15, the government has to make a decision over a complicated matter as it looks to keep Covid-19 cases down

(Dave Brown)

With so much discouraging data about the rise of the Delta coronavirus variant (formerly known as the “Indian” variant), and the distress and uncertainty about foreign holiday travel, it is all too easy to become gloomy about the chances of suppressing Covid-19. Rightly so, in fact, because the situation will remain serious for some time yet, and a potential third wave later in the year has always been a likely development.

Cases are now trending firmly in the wrong direction, and businesses and families fear the postponement of the next relaxation of lockdown on 21 June.

A partial postponement does feel increasingly likely, with working for home, for example, retained. The track record of the government in taking wise and timely decisions is not encouraging. Long experience teaches us to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. There have been false dawns before; there are legitimate concerns. The default option should be that the next relaxation will be delayed, unless the data does improve. 

Even so, not all of the news is bad, and some offers great hope. About half of the adult population has now received two doses of a vaccine, and, given that a proportion of the young, especially, will have developed antibodies through previous infection, the point at which herd immunity will provide reasonable levels of community protection at the national level must now be within reach.

It may be that the Delta variant’s pushing up of the R value means that some retention of some anti-Covid controls will need to be maintained for longer than planned, because the vaccine has to be allowed time to “catch up” with the spread of the virus. There is still a chance that unlocking can proceed, albeit at a slower rate; even so, a complete cancellation has to remain an option.

Children still seem remarkably resistant to the effects of Covid. A study published in The Lancet suggests that only two in every million children have died after contracting Covid-19. Yet the possibility that schools could be future hubs for asymptomatic transmission, because of the more transmissible Delta variant, certainly cannot be discounted. Data covering 26 April to 30 May showed the number of Delta variant infections rising in schools or other educational locations – with a total of 140 incidents.

As if on cue, the Medicines and Health products Regulatory Agency announced that it has approved the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine as safe for use in children between the ages of 12 and 15. No vaccine will stop all transmission of a virus at the individual level, but the evidence so far suggests that Covid infectiousness is reduced with vaccination, and, of course, any increase in overall cover adds to the herd immunity effect across the community as a whole. Fewer infections means fewer mutations and fewer channels for Covid-19 to spread. In short, it will save lives and prevent suffering. 

Of course, there are moral questions about administering vaccines to children, though it is hardly a novelty. It is a serious step, and has to come with consent. It is now a matter for the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, and for the government.

A more pressing practical and moral dilemma, though, is whether it might be better for the next round of vaccinations to be directed at vulnerable people and key workers in countries where the vaccination programme needs help to get going. It is a difficult choice, and it might not be the most politically attractive, but the fact is that the pandemic, by definition, is a global event, and it demands global solutions. There are many in far greater need than children in the west.