Mr Duncan Smith should be wary about claiming that history is on his side

Attending an international conference of centre-right parties in Washington yesterday, Iain Duncan Smith must have felt a little like the ugly sister at the grand ball. His host, President Bush, is the most prominent and powerful example of how a conservative can win an election against a progressive incumbent even at a time of peace and prosperity. And, while much attention has been paid to the surge in support for far-right parties, it is the more moderate conservative forces that have ended up taking power from the left in countries as diverse as Norway, Spain, Australia, Italy, Denmark the Netherlands and, now, France.

The German elections in September may well bring a further defeat for social democracy, despite the popularity of Chancellor Schröder. Tony Blair's victory in last June's election seems more and more like an exceptional case; it has left the Conservatives wondering how they failed to emulate the success of their political cousins.

There are certainly lessons to be learnt by the Tories, particularly from the Republican Party and its carefully crafted, if somewhat erroneous, image of inclusive "compassionate conservatism". But it is important that Mr Duncan Smith realises that he cannot surf on some sort of conservative wave crashing across the democratic world that will inevitably wash him into power. There is no triumph of ideology running their way.

The right-wing parties have managed to claw their way back into office in different countries for different reasons and with diverse strategies. Sometimes it is simply because their opponents, even with a strong economic record, have run inept campaigns with weak leaders (Lionel Jospin, Al Gore); sometimes voters are fed up with high taxes (Spain, France); sometimes they are tired of economic stagnation (prospectively Germany).

Mr Duncan Smith has consistently shown that he knows he must address the main concerns of the electorate – principally the decrepit state of public services – and not be distracted by campaigns about bogus aliens and saving the pound. He has also made useful capital out of the Government's reputation for spin and manipulation, largely self-inflicted wounds that have removed much of what was left of Mr Blair's sheen. Mr Duncan Smith has so far failed to begin to convince the voters that he will "deliver solutions to the problems people face"; and that is why his party remains so far behind Labour. But he does have time on his side.

The one thing that Mr Duncan Smith must not do, however, is to try to exploit the race issue. That is a temptation, when there is so much phoney hysteria over immigration, which is being pandered to by Mr Blunkett in his reactionary Asylum Bill. But it leaves a conservative in a bind. Either the issue flops, because the voters are less obsessed with the issue than sections of the media believe, as William Hague and Ann Widdecombe discovered to their cost. Or it is a salient issue, but pandering to it encourages the political extremes. Where this has happened, in Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands, for example – and almost in France – conservatives have found themselves prisoners of the irrational right.

If there is one lesson Mr Duncan Smith should take back to Washington, it is that conservatives do not have to echo extremists to win power. If his party is to return to power, it will be because it has regained the electorate's trust and convinced voters that they have genuine solutions to revive public services. Until then, he should be cautious about claiming the tide of history is on his side.