The prime minister likes to portray himself as a man of action, impatient to get things done, responding rapidly to events, a bundle of energy driving a lethargic government machine, the very antithesis of the twin evils of “dither and delay”.
His broadcast announcing another national lockdown, with twin union flags in the backdrop, was an attempt to reinforce that image of decisive leadership.
If only. Boris Johnson's record of dealing with the Covid-19 crisis has been one long, sorry saga of – and there is no better phrase – dither and delay. Or rather, asymmetric dither and delay, because he and his government have been consistently late in imposing national restrictions but overly hasty when the moment came to relax them.
In March, in October and again in December, Mr Johnson seemed hamstrung by indecision. Part of this at least was for understandable reasons and was mirrored elsewhere, not least in the rest of the UK. In Scotland, for example, Nicola Sturgeon, who prides herself on her conscientiousness, beat Mr Johnson to the announcement yesterday of a tougher lockdown but only by a few hours.
Mr Johnson faces the conflicting demands of public health and the economy, and thus has been pushed and pulled by the health secretary, Matt Hancock, and the chancellor, Rishi Sunak.
The decisions over “following the science” may also be more nuanced or uncertain than is often assumed, particularly with a virus and fine judgements to be made about the likeliness of the public’s compliance with yet more curbs on their freedoms.
Yet the prime minister’s habit of leaving decisions to the last minute is striking and consistent, and can be observed far beyond the coronavirus crisis, most obviously over Brexit.
It has been suggested that this is because he prefers the pressure of events and time to build up, such that his eventual choices are inevitably narrowed and the decisions almost make themselves. Even if the process is not conscious, this probably flatters Mr Johnson. Much more likely is that he is a devotee of the doctrine of cakeism. Indeed, he cheerfully admits as much himself, to such a degree that it seems he believes he has the unique gift of being able to have his cake and eat it.
Even so, the sheer political damage that would be inflicted by another bodged exam season means that the prime minister has had to cancel the 2021 round, and thus allow teachers and universities to prepare properly.
The dithering in general has had serious consequences, however, with chaotic decision-making leaving the public unsure where they stand. When the infection rates began to surge in December, the Christmas relaxation of the rules should have been cancelled. Whether or not it was due to the new variant, as Mr Johnson suggested, the coming wave of new cases and hospitalisations could be seen approaching weeks in advance. Now the acceleration in infections is such that it threatens to overwhelm the NHS.
Much the same can be said about the reopening of schools. They are a powerful vector of transmission for Covid-19. The reopening should have been cancelled last week, if not earlier. The precautionary principle should always be applied to public health because the stakes are so high.
The overall strategy has been seriously flawed in other respects. The tier system has not had the intended effect, and the stop-go-stop pattern over the last few months has been a failure. Now, without a mention in the prime minister’s broadcast, the tier system appears to have been left behind, at least for now.
It is too late for a short circuit-breaker. The country is waiting for the vaccine, and there is a race between the jab and the virus. At the moment, the vaccine rollout appears to be losing the contest, and the track record of the government in delivery should reassure no one.
The wait for the vaccine may be long, dark and cold. As Mr Johnson said, the weeks ahead will be “the hardest yet”.
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