Even with a huge majority, Labour will need an effective opposition – for the good of democracy

With Keir Starmer on course for the landslide that once seemed impossible, we must hope that the parliamentary Tory party, soon to be a much-denuded group in both quality and quantity, can find fresh leadership among its survivors

‘After a Labour landslide, the Tory shadow cabinet will suffer its very own severe skills shortage’: (from left) Penny Mordaunt, Priti Patel, Suella Braverman, Grant Shapps, Kemi Badenoch (Getty)

At the halfway point in the 2024 general election campaign, what was always going to be a dramatic contest is mutating into one of the strangest in history.

With another three weeks to go, the prime minister has declared that he is still “fighting for every vote”. That is usually a cliche, but this time round, Rishi Sunak really does need to scramble whatever support he can muster to prevent the worst defeat for the Conservative Party since the very dawn of the modern democratic age in 1832. One way or another, history will be made on 4 July.

On the face of things, the most important facts about this election are the same as they were when Mr Sunak revealed his surprise on the very wet afternoon of 22 May. Labour is bound to win. At that point, the party already enjoyed a lead of around 20 points over the Conservatives in the opinion polls; despite some fluctuations, it remains at a similar level now, though both Labour (a little) and the Conservatives (rather more) have slipped back.

Support for the Liberal Democrats remains below their 2019 performance but has edged up, and they are also beneficiaries of both the Tory collapse and a fashion for tactical voting – they will thus be rewarded with a much larger parliamentary party, perhaps their best showing since the days of David Lloyd George.

The SNP continues to languish, with Labour set to win back at least a couple of dozen seats that had seemed lost for good after the near-wipeout that followed the independence referendum a decade ago.

Yet it is the apparently irresistible rise of Nigel Farage that seizes the imagination – and all that means for the right and opposition politics after the likely Labour landslide.

Warnings from the Conservatives that “a vote for Reform is a vote for Labour”, with the consequences of a “supermajority”, a “socialist one-party state” and a “blank cheque for Labour”, are obviously self-serving; but the fact remains that, in a matter of a few weeks, Sir Keir Starmer will be equipped with a majority of perhaps 200 or more in the Commons.

Before long, barring any unexpected earthquakes, Labour will utterly dominate parliament and, in the British system, will thus exercise considerable power – power that it will be tempting, even for a dedicated democrat such as Sir Keir, to abuse.

So the country will need a strong opposition to provide principled and constructive scrutiny as it faces up to the acute economic and societal challenges of the 2020s. There is not much sign of that emerging from the disarray on the British right. Even without the presence of Mr Farage, inside or outside parliament, the Conservatives seem set to embark on another civil war just as soon as the polls close and the exit poll is broadcast (and the leadership hopefuls begin their manoeuvres).

It is inconceivable that Mr Sunak, especially after the D-Day debacle, could be an effective leader of the opposition. Tory MPs, soon to be a much-denuded group in both quality and quantity, will need to turn elsewhere among their survivors to find fresh leadership. Given current trends in the polls, only Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly, Priti Patel and, probably, Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman will be around to fight for the crown. Penny Mordaunt, Robert Jenrick and Gillian Keegan may well not survive.

Whichever of them does come through – and finds favour with a tiny, hard-right membership out of touch with wider public opinion – will be faced with the question of what to do with Boris Johnson, and, even more pressingly, what to do about Mr Farage. It is all highly unpredictable, but it is fairly certain that whatever direction the new leader takes, they will end up splitting the party even further. The arguments about the future of the right, with Mr Farage fomenting constant unrest, will provoke defections, resignations and expulsions from the remains of the Conservative Party.

The upshot of all that will be an official opposition in the Commons that is hopelessly distracted by infighting and divided along irreconcilable ideological lines. Even now, the calibre of the Labour front bench is far superior to that of the Conservatives. Sir Keir may not excite the electorate, but he hasn’t alienated them as badly as has Mr Sunak.

Rachel Reeves seems more fiscally responsible than the actual chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, now that he is offering tax cuts he ruled unaffordable only a few weeks ago. Wes Streeting is streets ahead of Victoria Atkins; Angela Rayner effortlessly outshines Oliver Dowden; and Jonathan Ashworth seems to have the edge on that seldom-seen possible future Tory leader John Glen.

When the present shadow cabinet becomes the real thing, they will grow in confidence, while the Tory shadow cabinet, with many of its most experienced players retired or defeated, will suffer its very own severe skills shortage.

Despite Labour’s cautious manifesto, the next four or five years may prove almost as momentous as the turbulent period after the 2016 EU referendum, and Britain needs an effective opposition. The Conservative Party needs to rebuild, and quickly, and above all to resist the lazy assumption that either Mr Farage or Mr Johnson can unite the right and position it to win the next general election simply by adopting the ludicrous Reform manifesto. Fight for every seat, by all means, but it is not too soon for the Conservatives to think about making the most of being in opposition.