Could Joe Biden save the Middle East and haul Israel back from the brink of disaster?

Editorial: If this war isn’t over quickly and it begins to resemble the pitiless, endless proxy wars fought in Afghanistan, Yemen and Syria, then we may be sure that there will be more terrorism, more hostage-taking and much more loss of life across the globe

(Dave Brown)

If there’s one person in the world that the famously stubborn prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, will listen to, it’s the president of the United States. The American secretary of state, Antony Blinken, was there to listen on his “shuttle diplomacy” tour of the region. Duly briefed on the hopes and fears of Israel and its neighbours, his chief, Mr Biden, now arrives in Jerusalem to offer some feedback to Mr Netanyahu and his colleagues – and ask some difficult questions. Mr Netanyahu would do well to heed Mr Biden’s words and offer some cogent answers.

Mr Biden has already publicly stated that an Israeli occupation of Gaza would be a “mistake”. That seems obvious, and such an exercise would in any case be beyond even the Israel Defence Forces at its most determined. An “open-air prison” with 2 million inmates, half with no shelter, and all short of water, food and medicines is not a viable outcome.

On the other hand, the president has also, tacitly, accepted that some form of invasion of Gaza will take place in the coming days, and has shown sensitivity as to why that is inevitable: “Israel is going after a group of people who have engaged in barbarism that is as consequential as the Holocaust… Israel has to respond.”

Attempting to persuade Israel to call off its ground force at this stage is thus simply unrealistic, even though the invasion is indeed likely to prove both disproportionate and futile, if not actively counterproductive to the cause of Israeli security. Mr Netanyahu has declared war on Hamas and Israel has the widely recognised right to defend itself. The invasion can’t be called off now, with the tanks and troops massed and after all the fiery promises made by Mr Netanyahu to his shocked, grieving people to destroy Hamas. Under no circumstances will Israel allow Hamas to appear to be the winner in this conflict; and America agrees.

So, some form of incursion will take place; Mr Biden’s role is to assure Israel that he has their back, as the phrase goes – but also to point out that that doesn’t mean America has to approve anything and everything that is done in the name of justice or self-defence. Or, still less, that a long, cruel unwinnable war fought over rubble is going to be supported without condition or limits by America.

What might those limits be?

In a way, that is almost for Mr Netanyahu to define. He has to show to Mr Biden, on behalf of the world, that Israel has clear, achievable aims and a plan. The president might therefore ask his opposite number how the siege, bombardment and invasion of Gaza will actually smash Hamas forever, rather than smashing the lives of innocent Palestinians on an unimaginable scale.

Even if Israeli forces were able to identify every Hamas fighter, every commander, every facility, every tunnel and every rocket, what is there to prevent the movement from regrouping, and committing atrocities again once the IDF goes home? Indeed, why does Mr Netanyahu suppose that the Palestinian children now losing parents and siblings to Israeli bombings won’t be determined to avenge them in the decades to come? What is the Gaza exit strategy?

How is it in the interests of Israel to provoke a humanitarian disaster, already under way? If Mr Biden were feeling combative enough, he might pointedly enquire of Mr Netanyahu how long he thinks a human baby can survive without water. We will soon find out, in any case. Mr Biden will probe the Israelis about their intentions and their chances of success because somebody has to. Abiding by international laws and the conventions of warfare are not obstacles to Israeli victory, but the means by which it will be won, and a more secure future assured.

Mighty superpower as it is, with Ukraine and Taiwan pressing on Washington’s mind and its budgets, America doesn’t want to be supporting another war in a faraway land, especially if it looks foolish and leaves Israel more, not less, exposed to threat. America and Israel have a shared interest in the conflict being contained in Gaza, and not spreading to the West Bank and southern Lebanon, dragging Hezbollah and Iran into the war. Israel will find the Gaza war difficult and bloody, and all the harder to “win” if it has to fight on a second and third front to the north and east, against ruthless but well-trained Hezbollah forces, more than generously armed by Iran.

Forty or so years ago, an Israeli force and its local proxies invaded southern Lebanon in order to destroy Palestinian terrorists. It ended in the notorious Sabra and Shatila massacre of civilians. It did not end the terrorism. Nor, evidently, did Israel’s invasion of Gaza in 2008. Nor the incursion into Jenin on the West Bank earlier this year.

The imminent invasion of Gaza now could be on a vastly larger scale and with it the deaths of innocent people. It’s by no means clear how Israel can win such an urban conflict in any meaningful sense, leaving aside any humanitarian or legal considerations. It is going to be a bloody blunder, and everyone knows it. President Biden is on a mission to make sure that it lasts as short a time as possible – and that something like normality and peace returns to Gaza soon, and the infrastructure is rebuilt before more people die. He will have to insist, as a first step, that urgent humanitarian aid can be delivered immediately, and there is a growing consensus among Israel’s friends in the West on this.

If this war isn’t over quickly and it begins to resemble the pitiless, endless proxy wars fought in Afghanistan, Yemen and Syria, then we may be sure that there will be more terrorism, more hostage-taking and much more loss of life across the globe. Israel will be even more isolated from those neighbours it has made its peace with – Egypt, Jordan, the Gulf states – who already feel betrayed and dishonoured.

Its allies in the West will openly question Israel’s actions, especially if a fresh wave of refugees sets out for Europe. All of this is exactly as Hamas and Iran would wish – a global “clash of civilisations”, with mayhem, destabilisation and chaos leading to the collapse of the Israeli state. There’s a lot riding on Mr Biden’s trip to Jerusalem. We wish him luck.