The world is watching Iran more acutely than in many years – and for good reason

Editorial: Iran’s leadership, civilian and religious, are now merely pretending to be in control. They want the world to go away and leave them alone

In their way, the players are cheering the protesters on (AP)

The saddest sight of the 2022 Fifa World Cup tournament so far was the Iranian players being forced to sing their national anthem before their game against Wales, and of those Iranians in the crowd in tears, as they watched their coercion by remote control.

One woman with teardrops painted on her face in place of the national flag held up a football shirt with “Mahsa Amini 22” marked out; a reference to the age at which the young woman was murdered in religious police custody for wearing her hijab incorrectly.

The Iranian government had obviously leant on the Qataris to prevent a reappearance of the huge anti-regime “WOMAN LIFE FREEDOM” banners seen in the previous game. But some dissident slogans managed to get through.

The authorities in Tehran were evidently upset that neither the fans nor the players had declined to display full enthusiasm for the anthem of the Islamic Republic in the opening game against England. So threats were communicated.

The team would have learnt, for example, of the arrest of the outspoken player Voria Ghafouri, a former member of the national football team, who has spoken up for the Kurdish minority. He was told he’d “tarnished the reputation of the national team and spread propaganda against the state”. That’s going to unsettle anyone’s game.

When Iran come to play the United States (aka “the Great Satan”) in their final group match, it will be a grudge match in more ways than one.

Equally clear is the fact that the Iranian regime doesn’t want the world to understand too much about what is going on at home. It may be too late for that – for the impression is growing of a nation in turmoil, struggling for freedom and prosperity, and on the verge of a counter-revolution against the theocracy that has ruled it since 1979.

In an odd, indirect way, the Iranian players who managed to pull off a dramatic late victory against Wales may have given something of a morale boost to the people back home. They played valiantly for their nation, and the coming counter-revolution – but plainly not for the greater glory of the clerical gangsters who presently control it so cruelly. In their way, the players are cheering the protesters on.

It has not been a great week for the ayatollahs, then. As well as the embarrassments in Qatar and the continuing bubbling discontent across the country, the UN’s human rights council voted to set up a fact-finding investigation into human rights abuses.

It means that there will now be a body to gather the wealth of evidence of human rights abuses by the various organs of the state, and a channel for the voices of those abused and tortured to be heard. In the background is the possibility of crimes against human rights, and even harsher sanctions and international isolation.

Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader and still more powerful than the parallel semi-democratic institutions, may have judged he had no choice but to side with Vladimir Putin in the Ukraine war, and has even supplied lethal drones and stepped up trade links; but he has picked a loser.

The people of Iran must wonder what business they have bombing Ukrainian tanks. Or, indeed, sponsoring terrorism across the region and fighting a pitiless proxy war in Yemen against Saudi Arabia.

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So the world is watching Iran more acutely than in many years, and for good reason. Change of some sort seems inevitable. The ironic echoes of the original Islamic revolution in 1979 are uncanny. The Shah was overthrown because he had grown arrogant and out of touch with his people, and he seemed far more secure than he actually was. But his secret police and vast army couldn’t protect him from a popular uprising of students and intellectuals, who found themselves incongruously in coalition with Ayatollah Khomeini.

Likewise, the religious police and the Revolutionary Guard won’t be able to save an archaic gerontocracy making war against its own people, most notably Kurds, women and democrats. More than 300 Iranians have died in the protests, and that has only fuelled them further.

Iran’s leadership, civilian and religious, are now merely pretending to be in control, and want the world to go away and leave them alone. And that is why the ayatollahs would actually rather like it if Iran crashed to defeat against the USA next Tuesday.