The political landscape has shifted – but we aren't heading for the energised Britain promised by Boris Johnson

The centre ground is disappearing as politics has become polarised under the alienating influence of Brexit

Friday 13 December 2019 02:30 GMT
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Remember DUDE? When Boris Johnson ran for the Conservative leadership in the summer he promised to: Deliver Brexit; Unite the country and Defeat Jeremy Corbyn – before also adding he would Energise the nation. Johnson has made some progress, on his own terms, in turning his acronym into action, although the consequences for the country will be grievous. It is an extraordinary result that few predicted.

The whole landscape of British politics is shifting. The “red wall” is crumbling. For what we may well be witnessing is the Trumpification of British politics, and the conversion of the old Conservative coalition into a driven populist movement of no fixed principles and more than a hint of a cult of personality.

There can be no doubt now that the UK will formally leave the European Union next month. The prime minister has won his mandate, albeit under a questionable prospectus, and his personal authority and the parliamentary arithmetic means that he will get his withdrawal bill through parliament with some ease. But that is not getting Brexit done. It is only the end of the first phase. Mr Johnson can, if he wishes to, ignore the so-called Spartans in his own party when the time comes for him to reach a new economic and security agreement with the EU. That is one of the few causes for optimism. But it is equally likely that Mr Johnson will slap no deal back on the table, and insist on leaving the EU on the impossible deadline of 31 December 2020. We will in other words still be mired in Brexit chaos, and the economic damage that comes with it.

Brexit will not be delivered, in any true sense, even by this time next year.

As for defeating Mr Corbyn, there can be no quibbling. It is the party’s worst performance since the 1980s or perhaps the 1930s even. In the acrimonious post mortem into Mr Corbyn’s turbulent leadership that is now under way there will be plenty of excuses. There will be a contest for the deputy leadership and the leadership. Labour will endure the civil war that was postponed after the aberrant performance in 2017. Inevitable though it may be, Labour will be so preoccupied with itself that it will prove an even weaker opposition than before. The defeat of Jo Swinson in her own constituency means that the Liberal Democrats will be another opposition party rendered leaderless at this crucial time. That is bad news for politics and democracy.

It is equally clear that the country is not going to be united or energised under a Johnson government. Scotland and London look to be even more different from the rest of the country. The nation has never been so divided by generation or by cultural differences, even as traditional class loyalties are softening for both main parties. The climate emergency will be ignored, our pluralist democratic institutions such as the BBC and the Supreme Court will come under attack.

The centre ground, as the Liberal Democrats have found, is becoming a different territory too, as politics has polarised under the alienating influence of Brexit. A decade of economic stagnation, depressed living standards, poor public services, miserable private sector investment and economic isolation awaits. That will not energise Britain, or unleash its potential, dude.

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