The UK is covered in a patchwork quilt of different measures, all because ministers dithered

Editorial: The Sage experts warned more than a month ago that a new national lockdown would be needed, but it seems they were overruled by a prime minister thinking only of the economy

(Brian Adcock)

In Wales the authorities have implemented a “firebreak” lockdown, albeit only for a fortnight. Officials have judged it the best way for the principality to push the coronavirus reproduction rates back down, and make the crisis a little easier to control in the medium term.

In Greater Manchester, though with less consistency than the Welsh government, the metro mayor, Andy Burnham, has accepted – in principle – the need for his region to be placed into a tighter tier 3 lockdown. It has not yet happened, though, because, unlike his counterparts in Cardiff, Mr Burnham does not have the financial resources the Welsh government has at its disposal. 

It is true that some extra funds have been offered to Greater Manchester, but not enough. In Liverpool City Region and Lancashire, the tier 3 escalation has been accepted with around £70m in combined support from the exchequer, though with misgivings. In the words of the Bishop of Manchester, it may be a case of Liverpool feeling cheated, Lancashire being bullied and Greater Manchester angrily determined not to be.

The problem, then, is that in Wales (and Scotland and Northern Ireland) the devolution of power over financial affairs makes it possible to align popular support and economic support for difficult measures – but in Manchester and other areas of England no such alignment is possible.

Such problems will multiply in the coming weeks and months as more chunks of England are pushed into tier 3 eligibility, through little fault of their own. What will happen when more places, from Nottingham to Newcastle, are forced to close down businesses and lose jobs? Families depending on what in normal times are perfectly viable jobs will instead face difficulties because they cannot bridge their way through the measures. It is becoming a national problem; the tier 2 districts, such as London, are undergoing similar slumps in trade with inadequate economic support.

A second national lockdown now looks increasingly likely in any case. The R rate is well above 1 almost everywhere, and the iron rules of mathematics mean that the infection and casualty rates will likely grow in Cornwall, Norfolk and other places hitherto comparatively unscathed by the pandemic. 

The virus can spread easily, and does not respect local authority boundaries. That is the issue with pursuing a localised, regional approach against a virus that operates globally. 

The Sage experts warned more than a month ago that a new national lockdown would be needed, but it seems thoughts of the economy overruled them and the prime minister did not push the short “circuit breaker” lockdown through cabinet. 

The result is that the whole UK is covered in a patchwork quilt of different measures, all of which will last longer than if the government had acted swiftly in September. Instead ministers have dithered and delayed and argued among themselves for too long. It is exactly what happened in March. 

Northern Ireland last week and Wales now, with their circuit-breaker lockdowns, have learned the lessons of last spring, and done the right thing – England needs to do the same. Meantime, many older citizens will likely be deciding for themselves that the safest thing to do is to stay home and save lives.