Starmer is right to proceed cautiously in resetting EU relations

Editorial: Exclusive poll for The Independent suggests UK voters expect a new referendum within 10 years

Fifty-two per cent of voters say they want another Brexit referendum within five years (EPA)

The prime minister told The Independent on the flight to Washington DC on Friday that he was “very serious” about repairing relations with the European Union after the turbulence of the past eight years. “Obviously, we have a long way to go,” he added.

He is right to proceed cautiously.

Philip van Scheltinga, of Redfield & Wilton, which carried out an opinion poll exclusively for The Independent, said: “While voters are mostly disappointed by Brexit, they have other priorities in mind.” The poll suggests that 56 per cent would vote to rejoin the EU if another referendum were held now, but this is not, as Mr Van Scheltinga put it, “a slam dunk”.

After Britain left the EU on the basis of a narrow margin in the original referendum, we ought to seek a more secure consent for rejoining. Nevertheless, it is significant that a majority of voters – 52 per cent – want another Brexit referendum within five years. And possibly just as significant that, for the first time since Redfield & Wilton have conducted such polls in 2021, more voters say another referendum is likely in the next 10 years than not.

Even so, it would make sense to work in stages towards a closer relationship before we get to the point of reopening the issue of membership. We would like Sir Keir to consider, for example, the German proposal for a youth mobility scheme, even if we understand the argument for not rushing it so soon after an election in which the Labour Party very deliberately said nothing about Europe.

But Sir Keir, his ministers and all those who recognise the benefits of closer cooperation with our largest trading partner, ought to start thinking about the next election.

Our poll shows support for taking a fresh look at Britain’s decision to leave the EU. Voters believe nearly everything has got worse as a result of Brexit, from the cost of living to the NHS. By the time of the next election, we hope that the Labour Party will be in a position to revisit at least some of what the prime minister calls “the red lines”. The case for a customs union with the EU, in particular, remains as strong as it was when Theresa May proposed it as the basis of her Brexit deal.

Sir Keir could do worse than to listen to the advice of Sir Tony Blair, who set out how the issue might be approached in his interview with Geordie Greig, editor-in-chief of The Independent, last weekend. Rather than emphasising the economic cost of Brexit, Sir Tony stressed the failure of the post-Brexit Conservative government to control immigration. It is notable that 39 per cent of voters in our Redfield & Wilton poll said immigration is higher “because of” Brexit, against 21 per cent who said it is lower.

Leaving the EU has been a disappointment to many of those who voted to do so, even if few are prepared to say that it was a mistake – Leave voters are more likely to say that Brexit was badly handled, which it certainly was, and that, in effect, “real Brexit has not been tried”, which is more contentious.

Sir Keir is right, however, not to refight the Brexit battle with a frontal assault. Much better to make the case indirectly, by stages, and to focus on small, practical improvements to our interactions with the EU. And to remember, with a two-to-one majority for rejoining among those who were too young to take part in the 2016 referendum, that time is on the pro-EU side.

However, even though we understand Sir Keir’s caution, a definite sense of direction on improving our relationship with Europe is necessary – on the economy, on immigration and, even in the simplest terms, on travel. Brexit was the most seismic event to hit Britain since the Second World War but we have not reached the end of the story.

Eventually, there will need to be courage, conviction and clarity on where we go next.