Election or not, the outlook remains bleak

Nothing could now be worse for Israel, let alone what remains of the Middle East peace process, than that Ariel Sharon, having lost the support of the Israeli Labour party in his unity government, should throw in his lot with the religious zealots and extremists on the far right of Israeli politics.

Despite all the provocations of suicide bombers, threats from Iraq and the still vocal hostility from other Arab hardliners, the Israeli people must realise that such a coalition would prove the worst of all worlds. A more extreme administration would close down any possibility of dialogue with the Palestinians while provoking Hamas and others into still more atrocities.

Even fresh elections might be preferable to this, if only on the grounds that Mr Sharon's Likud party, although hardly moderate, might succeed in gaining ground from the splinter groups to its right. Yet it is never wise to predict an election under Israel's ludicrously pure system of proportional representation. The Israeli people have always shown a tendency to shift to a more nationalist stance when terror is at its height, often accompanied by "tough" military responses. Even the uncompromising Mr Sharon has to weather allegations that he is too soft on the terrorists, and must watch his flank as he is challenged by opportunists such as the former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

There seems little chance, elections or not, of moderating Israel's support for illegal West Bank settlements, long one of the most formidable obstacles to a peace deal. The Israeli government may even escalate its military operations in the West Bank and Gaza, even though the result is wearily predictable: more recruits for Hamas and another racheting up of the conflict.

The futility of this process, so vividly apparent to the wider world, has not yet occurred to the Israeli government or a depressingly sizeable proportion of Israeli public opinion. As ever, pressure for change must come from outside. It is no less true for the frequency with which it is pointed out that peaceful progress in the region has never happened without the active support of the United States. From Kissinger to Carter to Clinton, American politicians have often spectacularly belied their crude stereotype, and worked tirelessly for peace. We can only hope that the Bush administration understands the gravity of what is happening in the Knesset and places the peace process at the centre of its actions.