Editorial: A not-so-new dawn in Japan

Monday 17 December 2012 20:56 GMT
Comments

Your support helps us to tell the story

This election is still a dead heat, according to most polls. In a fight with such wafer-thin margins, we need reporters on the ground talking to the people Trump and Harris are courting. Your support allows us to keep sending journalists to the story.

The Independent is trusted by 27 million Americans from across the entire political spectrum every month. Unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock you out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. But quality journalism must still be paid for.

Help us keep bring these critical stories to light. Your support makes all the difference.

When Japan's Liberal Democratic Party suffered its first election defeat in more than 50 years, it was widely heralded as the end of an era. Just three years later, however, the LDP has made a spectacular comeback, more than doubling its seats in the lower house of the Diet and catapulting Shinzo Abe – the former Prime Minister who lasted just a single, shambolic year in office – back into the top job.

What, then, will Mr Abe do with a super-majority (thanks to his coalition partners) that can override the upper house still dominated by the outgoing Democratic Party of Japan?

It is the Prime Minister-in-waiting's foreign policy that is drawing the most immediate attention. The renownedly hawkish Mr Abe wants to hike defence spending and revise Japan's pacifist constitution so it can establish itself as a military power in the region. Such a stance is popular in Washington, which would welcome the emergence of a friendly local counterweight to China. But there are real risks here. The patriotism that Mr Abe is keen to nurture can easily develop into a dangerous nationalism, and any escalation of the dispute over, say, the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands will hardly add to stability in the region.

For all the rhetoric, the new government's top priority will be closer to home, where the economy is perennially deflating and now back in recession for the fourth time since 2000. Mr Abe's solution is a combination of radical monetary easing combined with a surge of spending on public works. In comparison with his predecessor's plan to raise consumption taxes, it is easy to see why "Abenomics" is popular. Given that Japan has the highest public debts in the industrialised world, though, it will need to work fast if it is to be affordable.

Nor – with elections to the upper house in July – is there long to convince voters that the LDP is delivering on its promises. Mr Abe's landslide may have redrawn Japan's political landscape, but it is as much a verdict on the outgoing government as an endorsement of his own.

Join our commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Comments

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in