Donald Trump is losing his shutdown struggle with congress – and taking some serious political damage

The president is behind in the blame game and now the shutdown is undermining his claim to be tough on security and crime

The partial shutdown of federal government is not going Donald Trump’s way. His approval rating, already lower than that of most recent presidents halfway through their first term, is moving against him. Today we report a Politico/Morning Consult survey that found 57 per cent of Americans disapprove of him – just half a percentage point away from his worst rating so far, in December 2017.

Opinion polls suggest that the president’s plan for a Mexican border wall is opposed by more voters than support it. And, crucially, they suggest that more Americans blame President Trump for the shutdown than blame congressional Democrats – by margins approaching two to one.

These polls are not just the scoreboard for a game of politics in Washington. The shutdown is starting to have serious real-world consequences, and its long-term effects are increasingly likely to damage the Trump administration.

As we also report today, the FBI Agents Association warns that investigations into terrorism, street gangs and sex traffickers are being curtailed by the lack of funds. This is embarrassing for a president who poses as tough on security and crime.

The longer the shutdown, now heading into its 34th day, goes on, the harder it will be to repair the damage to the fabric of federal government. Many of Mr Trump’s supporters may be instinctively opposed to the idea of “big government”, but the shutdown is starting to expose the contradictions of such a world view. After all, what is the border wall but a “big government” project – for which the president is demanding congress stump up taxpayers’ money?

The jockeying between Mr Trump and Nancy Pelosi, the leader of the Democrats in congress, over the president’s State of the Union address next week looks like the worst kind of point-scoring political game. Formally, the president’s annual speech to a joint session of both houses of congress is delivered at the invitation of the house speaker – and this year Ms Pelosi is declining to issue the invitation while the shutdown continues.

Such manoeuvres probably cut little ice with the voters who will decide Mr Trump’s chances of re-election. Indeed, if the president has to deliver the speech at a supporters’s rally at a different venue, it might help his image as the Washington outsider, shut out of Capitol Hill.

But once the president gets the blame for failing to provide adequate resources for fighting crime and terrorism, people who don’t normally pay attention to politics will start to notice.

And, even if the shutdown ended tomorrow, some of the damage to the core functions of the security and law and order state will continue to hurt Mr Trump’s reputation until at least 2020.

It is now in the interest not just of the United States but of Mr Trump himself that he should cut his losses and agree to a compromise.